Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 14:44 • Azersun Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.40 (league 1.24) 0.39 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.3% 52.7% 23.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
45.4%
1 - 0
18.4%
0 - 1
17.5%
Score & goals probability table
Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 45.4% 17.5% 3.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
1 18.4% 7.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricQarabagNeftchi Baku
Played55
Form87%60%
Attack100%100%
Defense86%29%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.411 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

53%
FT probability

2.5+

37%
FT probability

3.5+

26%
FT probability

BTTS

50%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Qarabag Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
Played6396410
Wins50%100%67%17%50%30%
Draws33%0%22%67%50%60%
Loses17%0%11%17%0%10%

Form: Qarabag: LWDWWWWDW • Neftchi Baku: DDLDWDDDWW

League goals

Metric Qarabag Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
GF total69158614
GF avg1.03.01.71.31.51.4
GA total213527
GA avg0.30.30.30.80.50.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineQarabagNeftchi Baku
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%33%60%50%
1.556%0%50%20%
2.511%0%10%0%
3.511%0%10%0%
4.511%0%10%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricQarabagNeftchi Baku
HATHAT
Clean sheets426235
Failed to score202314

Penalties

MetricQarabagNeftchi Baku
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricQarabagNeftchi Baku
Wins41
Draws13
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-55-10-2
Biggest losses0-1—0-1—
Goals For2552
Goals Against1122

Model comparison

MetricQarabagNeftchi Baku
Form59%41%
Att39%61%
Def83%17%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total57.3%42.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Qarabag or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.55 @ Betano
Draw4.05 @ Pinnacle
Away6.32 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.81 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.08 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.88 @ Superbet
No2.00 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Qarabag = 0.40 (league 1.24), Neftchi Baku = 0.39 (league 1.17)

Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 45.4% 17.5% 3.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
1 18.4% 7.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.3% · Draw 52.7% · Away win 23.0%

Vtot 5 , Vtod1