Pure statistical evidence

Best Statistical Home Win Matches Today

This home-win evidence view highlights fixtures where the home side has statistical support. It uses home-role performance, opponent away-role weakness, recent 30-day evidence, league context, sample strength and odds signals.

Statistical evidence viewOpen FootyWow model probabilities

Market context

Historical market context for the selected statistical angle. Use this to see where the market has been strongest before reading today’s fixture cards.

Historical context

Loading market context…

PeriodViewContinentCountryMarket Type

Loading statistics overview…

#	Country / League	Played	Selected market %	Confidence	BTTS	O2.5	U2.5	Home / Draw / Away	Avg goals	Sample
Loading…

This is historical context, not a direct prediction probability. Raw percentages are shown, while sorting uses a confidence score adjusted for sample size.

How this statistical page is calculated

The main score is a pure statistical support index from current-season statistics.
FootyWow model values are shown only as a cross-check and are not part of the statistical score.
Samples come from played fixtures: home/away role sample, total season sample, and last 30 days sample.
Fixtures are filtered to the strongest statistical candidates for this market.

Best Statistical Home Win Matches Today

Fixtures are filtered to the strongest statistical candidates and sorted by statistical score.

Serie A Brazil

19:00 UTCNS

Atletico ParanaensevsMirassol

Statistical Score for Home Win62

Score breakdown

Home team home-win rate67

Weight 30%Home team's current-season home win rate.

Away team away-loss rate71

Weight 25%Away team's current-season away loss rate.

Home team total win rate44

Weight 12%Home team's full-season win rate.

Away team total loss rate53

Weight 10%Away team's full-season loss rate.

Goal-difference support83

Weight 8%Role-based goal-difference support.

Clean-sheet / failed-to-score support38

Weight 5%Home clean-sheet and away failed-to-score support.

League context50

Weight 6%Market support from the league context score.

Country context44

Weight 2%Lower-weight country context score.

Sample strength64

Weight 2%Confidence from role and total season sample size.

Click on the score above to view the score breakdown.

Score driversWhat supports the main score

Home team67

Good support

Away team71

Strong

League50

Moderate

Country44

Weak

The score is supported by solid team statistics with mixed context.

Bet365 oddsRelevant market prices

Home1.85

Draw3.30

Away4.33

Samples used (played fixtures)

Home/Away role sampleHome: 9Away: 7Total season sampleHome: 16Away: 15Last 30 days sampleHome: 1Away: 1

Last 30 days vs seasonRecent form is weaker than the season pattern.

FootyWow model agrees54%

See Fixture

Serie A Brazil

19:00 UTCNS

FlamengovsCoritiba

Statistical Score for Home Win52

Score breakdown

Home team home-win rate67

Weight 30%Home team's current-season home win rate.

Away team away-loss rate33

Weight 25%Away team's current-season away loss rate.

Home team total win rate60

Weight 12%Home team's full-season win rate.

Away team total loss rate31

Weight 10%Away team's full-season loss rate.

Goal-difference support75

Weight 8%Role-based goal-difference support.

Clean-sheet / failed-to-score support36

Weight 5%Home clean-sheet and away failed-to-score support.

League context50

Weight 6%Market support from the league context score.

Country context44

Weight 2%Lower-weight country context score.

Sample strength64

Weight 2%Confidence from role and total season sample size.

Click on the score above to view the score breakdown.

Score driversWhat supports the main score

Home team67

Good support

Away team33

Low

League50

Moderate

Country44

Weak

The score is mainly built from the full statistical mix rather than one dominant driver.

Bet365 oddsRelevant market prices

Home1.28

Draw5.00

Away9.50

Samples used (played fixtures)

Home/Away role sampleHome: 6Away: 9Total season sampleHome: 15Away: 16Last 30 days sampleHome: 2Away: 2

Last 30 days vs seasonRecent form is weaker than the season pattern.

FootyWow model agrees48%

See Fixture

Serie A Brazil

20:30 UTCNS

GremiovsCorinthians

Statistical Score for Home Win46

Score breakdown

Home team home-win rate57

Weight 30%Home team's current-season home win rate.

Away team away-loss rate38

Weight 25%Away team's current-season away loss rate.

Home team total win rate25

Weight 12%Home team's full-season win rate.

Away team total loss rate38

Weight 10%Away team's full-season loss rate.

Goal-difference support72

Weight 8%Role-based goal-difference support.

Clean-sheet / failed-to-score support34

Weight 5%Home clean-sheet and away failed-to-score support.

League context50

Weight 6%Market support from the league context score.

Country context44

Weight 2%Lower-weight country context score.

Sample strength68

Weight 2%Confidence from role and total season sample size.

Click on the score above to view the score breakdown.

Score driversWhat supports the main score

Home team57

Moderate

Away team38

Low

League50

Moderate

Country44

Weak

The score is mainly built from the full statistical mix rather than one dominant driver.

Bet365 oddsRelevant market prices

Home2.20

Draw3.25

Away3.30

Samples used (played fixtures)

Home/Away role sampleHome: 7Away: 8Total season sampleHome: 16Away: 16Last 30 days sampleHome: 2Away: 1

Last 30 days vs seasonRecent form is stronger than the season pattern.

FootyWow model agrees45%

See Fixture

Serie A Brazil

20:30 UTCNS

BahiavsBotafogo

Statistical Score for Home Win40

Score breakdown

Home team home-win rate25

Weight 30%Home team's current-season home win rate.

Away team away-loss rate50

Weight 25%Away team's current-season away loss rate.

Home team total win rate40

Weight 12%Home team's full-season win rate.

Away team total loss rate40

Weight 10%Away team's full-season loss rate.

Goal-difference support61

Weight 8%Role-based goal-difference support.

Clean-sheet / failed-to-score support19

Weight 5%Home clean-sheet and away failed-to-score support.

League context50

Weight 6%Market support from the league context score.

Country context44

Weight 2%Lower-weight country context score.

Sample strength64

Weight 2%Confidence from role and total season sample size.

Click on the score above to view the score breakdown.

Score driversWhat supports the main score

Home team25

Low

Away team50

Moderate

League50

Moderate

Country44

Weak

The score is mainly built from the full statistical mix rather than one dominant driver.

Bet365 oddsRelevant market prices

Home1.95

Draw3.40

Away3.75

Samples used (played fixtures)

Home/Away role sampleHome: 8Away: 8Total season sampleHome: 15Away: 15Last 30 days sampleHome: 2Away: 2

Last 30 days vs seasonRecent form is weaker than the season pattern.

FootyWow model agrees37%

See Fixture

Data product: /nodeapp/cache/2026-05-30/statistical-pages-v4-render-lab/home_win.json