Ekstraklasa — Poland
Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 19:15 • Stadion GOSiR
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.68) 1.03 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.9% 32.5% 40.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.9%
0 - 0
16.5%
1 - 1
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
Lech Poznan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arka Gdynia 0 16.5% 16.9% 8.7% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.8% 13.1% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 5.0% 5.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricArka GdyniaLech Poznan
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack36%50%
Defense0%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)15 | 36 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Arka Gdynia Lech Poznan
HATHAT
Played68148513
Wins67%0%29%25%60%38%
Draws33%13%21%50%40%46%
Loses0%88%50%25%0%15%

Form: Arka Gdynia: LDDWLLWLDLWLWL • Lech Poznan: LWWDWLWDDWDDD

League goals

Metric Arka Gdynia Lech Poznan
HATHAT
GF total821013922
GF avg1.30.30.71.61.81.7
GA total4212515520
GA avg0.72.61.81.91.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineArka GdyniaLech Poznan
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%79%92%77%
1.521%36%62%54%
2.50%29%8%15%
3.50%29%8%8%
4.50%7%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricArka GdyniaLech Poznan
HATHAT
Clean sheets213033
Failed to score167011

Penalties

MetricArka GdyniaLech Poznan
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricArka GdyniaLech Poznan
Wins12
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—2-10-2
Biggest losses—5-11-4—
Goals For2124
Goals Against1543

Model comparison

MetricArka GdyniaLech Poznan
Form46%54%
Att42%58%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h38%62%
Goals50%50%
Total41.3%58.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Lech Poznan

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.20 @ 10Bet
Draw3.60 @ Bet365
Away1.96 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.05 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ Bet365
No2.15 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Arka Gdynia = 0.78 (league 1.68), Lech Poznan = 1.03 (league 1.23)

Lech Poznan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arka Gdynia 0 16.5% 16.9% 8.7% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.8% 13.1% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 5.0% 5.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.9% · Draw 32.5% · Away win 40.5%

Vtot 4 , Vtod1