Toulouse 2-1 Lyon: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow
FT
Sun, May 10 2026 Β· 19:00
FT
2 - 1
πŸ† Ligue 1
🌍 France
🏟️ TBA
Pre-Match Predictions
Expected Goals
Home
1.35
League avg: 1.40
Both
2.75
League avg: 3.00
Away
1.40
League avg: 1.60
1X2 Probability
Home
29%
ELO-based: 24%
Draw
25%
ELO-based: 24%
Away
46%
ELO-based: 52%
Goal Probability
2.5+
55%
3.5+
39%
BTTS
64%
Best Score Tips
1 - 112%
0 - 19%
1 - 09%
Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Toulouse vs Lyon

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Toulouse vs Lyon.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.
FT Score Probability Grid
Lyon
01234
Toulouse 0 6.4% 8.9% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0%
1 8.6% 12.1% 8.5% 3.9% 1.4%
2 5.8% 8.2% 5.7% 2.7% 0.9%
3 2.6% 3.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4%
4 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
ELO Overview
Home
1520+14
League
1555Β±0
Away
1654+24
ELO Verdict
Away edge, High confidence, low upset risk
ELOOverallFormH/AAttackDefenseLast 5 +-
Toulouse15201532147815261456+14
Lyon16541651154516961633+24
League Snapshot
TeamPosMPPtsWDLGFGAForm
Toulouse103241118134545LLLDW
Lyon4326018685234DWWWW
Recent Team Form
TeamPlayedFormAttackDefenseGF avgGA avg
Toulouse 5 27% 39% 28% 1.4 2.6
Lyon 5 87% 61% 72% 2.2 1.0
Goal Trends
TeamGF HGF AGF TotGA HGA AGA Tot
Toulouse 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Lyon 1.9 1.4 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.1
Goals Trends, home + away avg.
TeamsGFGF H/AGAGA H/A
Toulouse 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Lyon 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3
Goal Minutes
MinHome ForAway ForHome AgainstAway Against
0-15 18.18% 11.32% 10.87% 6.06%
16-30 9.09% 16.98% 19.57% 6.06%
31-45 15.91% 20.75% 17.39% 24.24%
46-60 11.36% 18.87% 17.39% 12.12%
61-75 13.64% 11.32% 10.87% 15.15%
76-90 31.82% 20.75% 23.91% 36.36%
Team Comparison
24%
Form
76%
39%
Attack
61%
28%
Defense
72%
41%
Poisson
59%
29%
H2H
71%
36%
Goals
64%
33%
Total
67%
Biggest Results
TeamWin HWin ALoss HLoss AGF H/AGA H/A
Toulouse 5-1 0-3 0-4 3-1 5 / 4 6 / 3
Lyon 3-0 2-5 2-3 3-1 4 / 5 3 / 3
Clean sheets & failed to score
TeamCSCS HCS AFTSFTS HFTS A
Toulouse 9 6 3 10 6 4
Lyon 15 8 7 5 0 5
Penalties
TeamScoredScored %MissedMissed %WonCommitted
Toulouse 4 100.00% 0 0% β€” β€”
Lyon 3 100.00% 0 0% β€” β€”
Recent H2H
DateHomeScoreAway
2025-10-05 Lyon 1 - 2 FT Toulouse
2025-01-18 Lyon 0 - 0 FT Toulouse
2024-09-29 Toulouse 1 - 2 FT Lyon
2024-03-15 Toulouse 2 - 3 FT Lyon
2023-12-10 Lyon 3 - 0 FT Toulouse
2023-04-14 Toulouse 1 - 2 FT Lyon
Best Odds Snapshot
MarketBest oddBookmaker
Home win 4.20 Homepage market
Draw 4.10 Homepage market
Away win 1.75 Homepage market
2.5 goals market 1.73 Homepage market
BTTS market 1.67 Homepage market
Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.
Match Stats
StatToulouseLyon
expected_goals 1.19 1.54
Ball Possession 39% 61%
Total Shots 14 18
Shots on Goal 6 3
Shots off Goal 5 7
Blocked Shots 3 8
Shots insidebox 10 13
Shots outsidebox 4 5
Corner Kicks 7 8
Offsides 0 1
Fouls 20 9
Yellow Cards 6 2
Red Cards 1 0
Goalkeeper Saves 2 4
Total passes 304 480
Passes accurate 250 418
Passes % 82% 87%
goals_prevented -0.09 -0.09
Match Events
MinTeamPlayerTypeDetail
90+1' Toulouse Y. Gboho subst Out: S. Koumbassa
89' Lyon A. Maitland-Niles subst Out: M. Fofana
83' Lyon T. Morton subst Out: N. Nartey
83' Lyon R. Yaremchuk subst Out: E. Nuamah
82' Toulouse S. Hidalgo subst Out: D. Sidibe
79' Toulouse A. Donnum Card Yellow Card
79' Toulouse A. Donnum Card Red Card
78' Toulouse W. Kamanzi Goal Assist: S. Hidalgo
71' Lyon C. Tolisso Goal Assist: Endrick
70' Lyon R. Yaremchuk Card Yellow Card
67' Lyon K. Merah subst Out: P. Sulc
61' Toulouse A. Vossah subst Out: P. Demba
61' Toulouse J. Russell-Rowe subst Out: Emersonn
60' Toulouse D. Methalie subst Out: W. Kamanzi
57' Toulouse C. Cresswell Card Yellow Card
56' Lyon Endrick Card Yellow Card
46' Toulouse M. McKenzie Card Yellow Card
45+1' Toulouse A. Vossah Card Yellow Card
44' Toulouse D. Methalie Card Yellow Card
26' Toulouse A. Donnum Card Yellow Card
10' Toulouse D. Methalie Goal Assist: Y. Gboho
League Standings
Local standings cache Β· Ligue 1 2025
TeamPosMPPtsWDLGFGAGDForm
Paris Saint Germain Champions League 1 33 76 24 4 5 73 27 46 WWDWW
Lens Champions League 2 33 67 21 4 8 62 35 27 LWDDW
Lille Champions League 3 33 61 18 7 8 52 35 17 WDWDW
Lyon Champions League Qualification 4 33 60 18 6 9 53 36 17 LWWWW
Rennes UEFA Europa League 5 33 59 17 8 8 58 47 11 WLWWW
Marseille Conference League Qualification 6 33 56 17 5 11 60 44 16 WLDLW
Monaco 7 33 54 16 6 11 56 49 7 LWDDL
Strasbourg 8 33 50 14 8 11 53 43 10 WDLWL
Lorient 9 33 45 11 12 10 48 49 -1 WDLWL
Toulouse 10 33 44 12 8 13 47 46 1 WWDLL
Paris FC 11 33 41 10 11 12 45 49 -4 LWLWW
Stade Brestois 29 12 33 38 10 8 15 42 54 -12 LLLDD
Angers 13 33 35 9 8 16 28 47 -19 DLLDL
Le Havre 14 33 32 6 14 13 30 44 -14 LDDDD
Auxerre 15 33 31 7 10 16 32 44 -12 WWLDD
Nice Relegation Playoffs 16 33 31 7 10 16 37 60 -23 LDDDD
Nantes Relegation 17 33 23 5 8 20 29 52 -23 LWLLD
Metz Relegation 18 33 16 3 7 23 32 76 -44 LLDLL