FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Bundesliga 🌍 Germany

Sun, May 10 2026 · 17:30

FSV Mainz 05

1 - 3

Union Berlin

🏆 Bundesliga

🌍 Germany

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.60

League avg: 1.30

Both

2.75

League avg: 2.50

Away

1.15

League avg: 1.20

1X2 Probability

Home

53%

ELO-based: 45%

Draw

26%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

21%

ELO-based: 31%

Goal Probability

2.5+

57%

3.5+

41%

BTTS

73%

Best Score Tips

1 - 112%

1 - 010%

2 - 19%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Union Berlin
		0	1	2	3	4
FSV Mainz 05	0	6.4%	7.4%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
	1	10.2%	11.8%	6.8%	2.6%	0.7%
	2	8.2%	9.4%	5.4%	2.1%	0.6%
	3	4.4%	5.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
	4	1.7%	2.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1580-4

League

1562±0

Away

1513+10

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Medium confidence, medium upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
FSV Mainz 05	1580	1586	1511	1536	1574	-4
Union Berlin	1513	1512	1522	1577	1494	+10

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
FSV Mainz 05	10	32	37	9	10	13	41	50	WLDLW
Union Berlin	11	32	33	8	9	15	37	57	DLLLD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
FSV Mainz 05	5	47%	62%	38%	1.6	1.6
Union Berlin	5	13%	46%	15%	1.2	2.2

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
FSV Mainz 05	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.8	1.6
Union Berlin	1.4	0.9	1.2	1.6	1.9	1.8

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
FSV Mainz 05	1.3	1.3	1.6	1.4
Union Berlin	1.2	0.9	1.8	1.9

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	18.60%	5.26%	18.75%	7.14%
16-30	11.63%	15.79%	12.50%	8.93%
31-45	20.93%	7.89%	8.33%	26.79%
46-60	11.63%	18.42%	16.67%	21.43%
61-75	16.28%	15.79%	6.25%	10.71%
76-90	20.93%	36.84%	37.50%	23.21%

Team Comparison

78%

Form

22%

57%

Attack

43%

58%

Defense

42%

61%

Poisson

39%

25%

H2H

75%

38%

Goals

63%

53%

Total

47%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
FSV Mainz 05	3-1	1-4	0-2	4-0	3 / 4	4 / 4
Union Berlin	3-1	3-4	1-4	4-0	3 / 4	4 / 4

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
FSV Mainz 05	3	2	1	10	6	4
Union Berlin	6	3	3	8	3	5

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
FSV Mainz 05	8	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Union Berlin	3	75.00%	1	25.00%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-01-10	Union Berlin	2 - 2 FT	FSV Mainz 05
2025-01-19	Union Berlin	2 - 1 FT	FSV Mainz 05
2024-08-24	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1 FT	Union Berlin
2024-02-07	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1 FT	Union Berlin
2023-08-20	Union Berlin	4 - 1 FT	FSV Mainz 05
2023-02-04	Union Berlin	2 - 1 FT	FSV Mainz 05

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.70	Homepage market
Draw	4.10	Homepage market
Away win	4.33	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	2.20	Homepage market
BTTS market	2.10	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	FSV Mainz 05	Union Berlin
expected_goals	1.50	2.77
Ball Possession	53%	47%
Total Shots	14	16
Shots on Goal	3	9
Shots off Goal	7	6
Blocked Shots	4	1
Shots insidebox	10	12
Shots outsidebox	4	4
Corner Kicks	7	8
Offsides	2	0
Fouls	11	10
Yellow Cards	2	1
Red Cards	—	—
Goalkeeper Saves	6	2
Total passes	463	411
Passes accurate	390	337
Passes %	84%	82%
goals_prevented	0.30	0.30

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+1'	Union Berlin	J. Juranovic	Goal	Assist: T. Skarke
88'	Union Berlin	O. Burke	Goal	Assist: A. Ilic
88'	Union Berlin	O. Burke	subst	Out: T. Skarke
81'	FSV Mainz 05	P. Tietz	subst	Out: N. Weiper
81'	FSV Mainz 05	S. Becker	subst	Out: A. Sieb
81'	Union Berlin	C. Trimmel	subst	Out: J. Juranovic
80'	Union Berlin	D. Kohn	Card	Yellow Card
75'	FSV Mainz 05	Lee Jae-Sung	Card	Yellow Card
70'	FSV Mainz 05	A. Caci	subst	Out: N. Veratschnig
70'	FSV Mainz 05	P. Nebel	subst	Out: Lee Jae-Sung
60'	Union Berlin	T. Rothe	subst	Out: D. Kohn
60'	Union Berlin	I. Ansah	subst	Out: A. Schafer
59'	Union Berlin	L. Burcu	subst	Out: Jeong Woo-Yeong
57'	FSV Mainz 05	P. Tietz	Var	Goal Disallowed - offside
48'	FSV Mainz 05	S. Becker	Goal	Assist: P. Nebel
38'	Union Berlin	A. Ilic	Goal	Assist: A. Kemlein
16'	FSV Mainz 05	D. da Costa	subst	Out: K. Potulski
7'	FSV Mainz 05	A. Caci	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · Bundesliga 2025

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Bayern München Champions League	1	34	89	28	5	1	122	36	86	WWDWW
Borussia Dortmund Champions League	2	34	73	22	7	5	70	34	36	WWLWL
RB Leipzig Champions League	3	34	65	20	5	9	66	47	19	LWLWW
VfB Stuttgart Champions League	4	34	62	18	8	8	71	49	22	DWDDL
1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League	5	34	61	18	7	9	65	52	13	LWDWW
Bayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League	6	34	59	17	8	9	68	47	21	DLWWL
SC Freiburg Conference League Qualification	7	34	47	13	8	13	51	57	-6	WLDLW
Eintracht Frankfurt	8	34	44	11	11	12	61	65	-4	DLLDL
FC Augsburg	9	34	43	12	7	15	45	61	-16	LWWDW
FSV Mainz 05	10	34	40	10	10	14	44	53	-9	WLWLD
Union Berlin	11	34	39	10	9	15	44	58	-14	WWDLL
Borussia Mönchengladbach	12	34	38	9	11	14	42	53	-11	WLWDD
Hamburger SV	13	34	38	9	11	14	40	54	-14	DWWLL
1. FC Köln	14	34	32	7	11	16	49	63	-14	LLDLD
Werder Bremen	15	34	32	8	8	18	37	60	-23	LLLDW
VfL Wolfsburg Relegation Playoffs	16	34	29	7	8	19	45	69	-24	WLDDW
1. FC Heidenheim Relegation	17	34	26	6	8	20	41	72	-31	LWDWL
FC St. Pauli Relegation	18	34	26	6	8	20	29	60	-31	LLLLD