Bundesliga — Austria
Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 16:00 • Merkur-Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.43) 2.37 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
10.5% 16.7% 69.3%
best score tips
0 - 2
12.0%
0 - 1
10.1%
0 - 3
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Red Bull Salzburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 4.3% 10.1% 12.0% 9.5% 5.6% 2.7%
1 3.3% 7.9% 9.4% 7.4% 4.4% 2.1%
2 1.3% 3.1% 3.7% 2.9% 1.7% 0.8%
3 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Played55
Form60%87%
Attack53%76%
Defense53%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.813 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sturm Graz Red Bull Salzburg
HATHAT
Played47117512
Wins25%86%64%57%60%58%
Draws0%0%0%29%20%25%
Loses75%14%36%14%20%17%

Form: Sturm Graz: WLWWLWWWWLL • Red Bull Salzburg: DWWWDLLWWDWW

League goals

Metric Sturm Graz Red Bull Salzburg
HATHAT
GF total31720181028
GF avg0.82.41.82.62.02.3
GA total66128715
GA avg1.50.91.11.11.41.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%55%92%75%
1.555%36%83%42%
2.527%18%33%8%
3.59%0%17%0%
4.50%0%8%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
HATHAT
Clean sheets145213
Failed to score101101

Penalties

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Wins43
Draws01
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-35-00-3
Biggest losses1-32-10-23-1
Goals For1453
Goals Against3323

Model comparison

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Form41%59%
Att41%59%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution26%74%
H2h80%20%
Goals70%30%
Total49.3%50.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Red Bull Salzburg

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.43 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.70 @ 188Bet
Away3.01 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.25 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.54 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Sturm Graz = 0.78 (league 1.43), Red Bull Salzburg = 2.37 (league 1.27)

Red Bull Salzburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 4.3% 10.1% 12.0% 9.5% 5.6% 2.7%
1 3.3% 7.9% 9.4% 7.4% 4.4% 2.1%
2 1.3% 3.1% 3.7% 2.9% 1.7% 0.8%
3 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.5% · Draw 16.7% · Away win 69.3%

Vtot 14 , Vtod1