Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 15:30 • Estádio José Gomes
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.52 (league 1.37) 1.13 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.2% 32.3% 50.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
21.6%
0 - 0
19.2%
0 - 2
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 19.2% 21.6% 12.2% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3%
1 10.1% 11.3% 6.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
2 2.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEstrelaNacional
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack64%43%
Defense50%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Estrela Nacional
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins20%20%20%20%40%30%
Draws20%60%40%0%40%20%
Loses60%20%40%80%20%50%

Form: Estrela: DLDDLDWLLW • Nacional: LDLWLLWWDL

League goals

Metric Estrela Nacional
HATHAT
GF total66125510
GF avg1.21.21.21.01.01.0
GA total761311314
GA avg1.41.21.32.20.61.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEstrelaNacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%70%70%80%
1.530%50%20%40%
2.520%10%10%10%
3.510%0%0%10%
4.510%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEstrelaNacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets123022
Failed to score235213

Penalties

MetricEstrelaNacional
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricEstrelaNacional
Wins12
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-03-53-20-2
Biggest losses0-22-01-41-0
Goals For3532
Goals Against2341

Model comparison

MetricEstrelaNacional
Form50%50%
Att60%40%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution33%67%
H2h71%29%
Goals80%20%
Total56.7%43.3%

Advice: Double chance : Estrela or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.56 @ 188Bet
Draw3.22 @ 1xBet
Away3.28 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.33 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.68 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Estrela = 0.52 (league 1.37), Nacional = 1.13 (league 1.24)

Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 19.2% 21.6% 12.2% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3%
1 10.1% 11.3% 6.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
2 2.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.2% · Draw 32.3% · Away win 50.4%

Vtot 12 , Vtod1