Sat, Apr 18 2026 • 14:30 •
Estádio da Madeira
Expected Goals
1.83 (league 1.45)
1.51 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.3% | 22.6% | 31.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.8%
2 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Alverca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nacional | 0 | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 20% | 53% |
| Defense | 67% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 29% | 13% | 21% | 40% | 21% | 31% |
| Draws | 14% | 33% | 24% | 27% | 29% | 28% |
| Loses | 57% | 53% | 55% | 33% | 50% | 41% |
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AlvercaLLDLWLWWLLDWWLLLWWLDLDDDDDLWW
League goals
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 12 | 31 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 21 | 20 | 41 | 21 | 26 | 47 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nacional | Alverca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 83% | 76% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 24% | 45% | 28% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 10% | 7% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 43.8% | 56.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.33 @ 1xBet
Draw3.51 @ Pinnacle
Away3.17 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.92 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.98 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.70 @ William Hill
No2.15 @ Betfair
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League standings
Loading standings…