Mon, May 11 2026 • 19:15 •
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Expected Goals
2.45 (league 1.45)
0.83 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.1% | 16.3% | 10.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
11.3%
2 - 1
9.4%
3 - 0
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Arouca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| GIL Vicente | 0 | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
GIL Vicente carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 78 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: GIL Vicente +1.1, Arouca +4.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
GIL Vicente
vs
Arouca
Elo gapGIL Vicente +78
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2998.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2998.1
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1520.3 | 1477.8 |
| Form Elo | 1508.5 | 1482.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498.3 | 1476.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1509.7 | 1506.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1584.8 | 1410.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.1 | +4.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. GIL Vicente last-5 Elo change: +1.1; Arouca last-5 Elo change: +4.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 70% | 70% |
| Defense | 60% | 30% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 56% | 25% | 41% | 38% | 25% | 31% |
| Draws | 19% | 50% | 34% | 25% | 13% | 19% |
| Loses | 25% | 25% | 25% | 38% | 63% | 50% |
GIL VicenteWLDWWWLWWWDLDDDDDWLWWWLLDDLWDLWD
AroucaWLDDLWLDLLLLLWDDLWLWWLWLLLWWLWLD
League goals
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 19 | 46 | 24 | 17 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 14 | 18 | 32 | 29 | 33 | 62 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | GIL Vicente | Arouca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 63% | 72% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 31% | 34% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 6% | 22% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 8 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 8 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 36% | 64% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 53.0% | 47.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.75 @ 1xBet
Draw3.95 @ Betano
Away4.93 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.89 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.04 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Unibet
No2.00 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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