Sat, Oct 25 2025 • 13:30 • DragonBet Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.63 (league 1.66) 1.23 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
46.2% 24.4% 28.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.5%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
Caernarfon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penybont 0 5.7% 7.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 9.3% 11.5% 7.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.6% 9.4% 5.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.2% 5.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenybontCaernarfon Town
Played55
Form67%27%
Attack41%23%
Defense68%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.410 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penybont Caernarfon Town
HATHAT
Played67136713
Wins67%57%62%50%43%46%
Draws0%29%15%0%43%23%
Loses33%14%23%50%14%31%

Form: Penybont: WLWWLDWWWWDWL • Caernarfon Town: DWWWDWWLWLLLD

League goals

Metric Penybont Caernarfon Town
HATHAT
GF total101222131730
GF avg1.71.71.72.22.42.3
GA total4913101121
GA avg0.71.31.01.71.61.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenybontCaernarfon Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%46%85%92%
1.554%23%62%54%
2.523%8%31%15%
3.515%8%23%0%
4.58%8%23%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenybontCaernarfon Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets347101
Failed to score224112

Penalties

MetricPenybontCaernarfon Town
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricPenybontCaernarfon Town
Wins43
Draws11
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-46-12-5
Biggest losses0-26-20-31-0
Goals For5465
Goals Against2632

Model comparison

MetricPenybontCaernarfon Town
Form71%29%
Att64%36%
Def59%41%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h80%20%
Goals70%30%
Total67.5%32.5%

Advice: Double chance : Penybont or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.18 @ Dafabet
Draw3.84 @ Pinnacle
Away3.95 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.47 @ Superbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.52 @ Superbet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Penybont = 1.63 (league 1.66), Caernarfon Town = 1.23 (league 1.37)

Caernarfon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penybont 0 5.7% 7.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 9.3% 11.5% 7.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.6% 9.4% 5.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.2% 5.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.2% · Draw 24.4% · Away win 28.6%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1