Wed, May 13 2026 • 15:00 •
Stadion Miejski
Expected Goals
0.66 (league 1.67)
0.80 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.1% | 37.2% | 35.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
23.2%
0 - 1
18.6%
1 - 0
15.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Victoria Września | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Unia Swarzędz | 0 | 23.2% | 18.6% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.3% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Unia Swarzędz carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Unia Swarzędz +37.0, Victoria Września +29.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Unia Swarzędz
vs
Victoria Września
Elo gapUnia Swarzędz +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3007.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3007.6
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1518.2 | 1489.4 |
| Form Elo | 1540.6 | 1511.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.3 | 1495.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1503.9 | 1453.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1562.1 | 1558 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +37.0 | +29.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Unia Swarzędz last-5 Elo change: +37.0; Victoria Września last-5 Elo change: +29.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 67% |
| Attack | 67% | 58% |
| Defense | 75% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 27% | 40% | 33% | 33% | 40% | 37% |
| Draws | 27% | 27% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 10% |
| Loses | 47% | 33% | 40% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
Unia SwarzędzDDLWLWDWLLLDWLLDLLLWDLWLWWWDDW
Victoria WrześniaLLWLLLLWLLLLWWLLWDLLLWWWDWWDWL
League goals
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 20 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 17 | 18 | 35 | 23 | 16 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 70% | 63% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 33% | 37% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 10% | 17% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 9 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Unia Swarzędz | Victoria Września |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52% | 48% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 46.4% | 53.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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