Wed, May 13 2026 • 16:00 •
Stadion KS Polonia Nysa
Expected Goals
0.66 (league 1.59)
2.63 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | 13.6% | 74.3% |
best score tips
0 - 2
12.9%
0 - 3
11.3%
0 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Lechia Zielona Góra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Polonia Nysa | 0 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| 1 | 2.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Lechia Zielona Góra carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 157 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Polonia Nysa -12.6, Lechia Zielona Góra +7.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Polonia Nysa
vs
Lechia Zielona Góra
Elo gapLechia Zielona Góra +157
Home / draw / away24% / 18% / 58%
Expected home share29%
Combined Elo3069.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3069.3
Elo home share
29%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1438.7 | 1630.6 |
| Form Elo | 1422.5 | 1633 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1474 | 1560 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.2 | 1667.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1413.3 | 1732.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.6 | +7.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Polonia Nysa last-5 Elo change: -12.6; Lechia Zielona Góra last-5 Elo change: +7.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 67% |
| Attack | 88% | 75% |
| Defense | 0% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 14 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 27% | 21% | 24% | 43% | 67% | 55% |
| Draws | 33% | 36% | 34% | 50% | 20% | 34% |
| Loses | 40% | 43% | 41% | 7% | 13% | 10% |
Polonia NysaWLWLDDWWLDWDDDLDDLWLLLDLLWDLL
Lechia Zielona GóraDWWWWDWLWDDWWDWWWDWDLDWDLWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 21 | 43 | 26 | 36 | 62 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 23 | 27 | 50 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 79% | 79% | 41% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 45% | 48% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 21% | 34% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 14% | 24% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 7% | 21% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 7-2 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Lechia Zielona Góra |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 20% | 80% |
| Poisson Distribution | 19% | 81% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 37.0% | 63.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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