Neftchi Baku 3-0 Şamaxı FK: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Neftchi Baku 3-0 Şamaxı FK: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Premyer Liqa 🌍 Azerbaijan

Sun, May 10 2026 · 15:30

Neftchi Baku

3 - 0

Şamaxı FK

🏆 Premyer Liqa

🌍 Azerbaijan

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.15

League avg: 1.70

Both

2.20

League avg: 2.60

Away

1.05

League avg: 0.90

1X2 Probability

Home

33%

ELO-based: 49%

Draw

33%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

34%

ELO-based: 27%

Goal Probability

2.5+

45%

3.5+

33%

BTTS

59%

Best Score Tips

1 - 113%

1 - 013%

0 - 112%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Şamaxı FK
		0	1	2	3	4
Neftchi Baku	0	11.1%	11.6%	6.1%	2.1%	0.6%
	1	12.7%	13.4%	7.0%	2.5%	0.6%
	2	7.3%	7.7%	4.0%	1.4%	0.4%
	3	2.8%	2.9%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%
	4	0.8%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

ELO Overview

Home

1602+13

League

1527±0

Away

1500-9

ELO Verdict

Home edge, High confidence, low upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Neftchi Baku	1602	1622	1521	1660	1579	+13
Şamaxı FK	1500	1498	1500	1397	1555	-9

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Neftchi Baku	4	30	50	13	11	6	51	31	WDLWW
Şamaxı FK	8	30	35	8	11	11	27	32	DDLWL

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Neftchi Baku	5	67%	100%	11%	1.8	1.6
Şamaxı FK	5	33%	33%	44%	0.6	1.0

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Neftchi Baku	1.6	1.8	1.7	1.2	0.9	1.0
Şamaxı FK	0.9	0.9	0.9	1.4	0.7	1.1

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Neftchi Baku	1.7	1.6	1.0	1.2
Şamaxı FK	0.9	0.9	1.1	0.7

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	9.62%	13.79%	10.00%	6.67%
16-30	13.46%	10.34%	10.00%	3.33%
31-45	15.38%	13.79%	16.67%	23.33%
46-60	21.15%	13.79%	16.67%	13.33%
61-75	13.46%	27.59%	16.67%	10.00%
76-90	26.92%	20.69%	30.00%	43.33%

Team Comparison

67%

Form

33%

75%

Attack

25%

38%

Defense

62%

53%

Poisson

47%

75%

H2H

25%

62%

Goals

38%

62%

Total

38%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Neftchi Baku	6-0	0-4	1-5	2-0	6 / 4	5 / 2
Şamaxı FK	3-0	0-3	0-4	2-0	3 / 3	4 / 2

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Neftchi Baku	11	5	6	9	5	4
Şamaxı FK	13	6	7	11	6	5

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Neftchi Baku	7	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Şamaxı FK	4	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-02-28	Şamaxı FK	2 - 2 FT	Neftchi Baku
2025-08-16	Neftchi Baku	1 - 1 FT	Şamaxı FK
2025-04-07	Şamaxı FK	0 - 2 FT	Neftchi Baku
2025-01-31	Neftchi Baku	1 - 0 FT	Şamaxı FK
2024-11-08	Neftchi Baku	2 - 2 FT	Şamaxı FK
2024-08-31	Şamaxı FK	0 - 0 FT	Neftchi Baku

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.50	Homepage market
Draw	3.80	Homepage market
Away win	5.50	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	1.95	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+1'	Şamaxı FK	R. Fernandes	Card	Yellow Card
86'	Şamaxı FK	O. Mammadov	subst	Out: R. Fernandes
86'	Şamaxı FK	D. Balau	subst	Out: A. Shuaibu
86'	Şamaxı FK	R. Apolinario	subst	Out: E. Suleymanov
84'	Neftchi Baku	I. Faraj	subst	Out: A. Shtogrin
83'	Neftchi Baku	Breno Almeida	Goal	Normal Goal
75'	Neftchi Baku	F. Vargas	subst	Out: A. Salyanskiy
64'	Şamaxı FK	K. Rossi	Card	Yellow Card
64'	Şamaxı FK	A. Msanga	subst	Out: E. Adilkhanov
64'	Neftchi Baku	S. D'Almeida	subst	Out: I. Mathew
64'	Neftchi Baku	E. Safarov	subst	Out: J. Rezabala
64'	Neftchi Baku	L. Ortiz	subst	Out: M. Seck
47'	Neftchi Baku	I. Faraj	Goal	Normal Goal
41'	Şamaxı FK	O. Mammadov	Card	Yellow Card
20'	Şamaxı FK	A. Agcabayov	Card	Yellow Card
10'	Neftchi Baku	L. Ortiz	Card	Yellow Card
1'	Neftchi Baku	E. Mahmudov	Goal	Normal Goal

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Sabah FA Champions League Qualification	1	31	75	23	6	2	72	22	50	LWWWD
Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualification	2	32	66	20	6	6	67	24	43	WDWLW
Turan Conference League Qualification	3	32	59	17	8	7	43	25	18	LWLDW
Neftchi Baku Conference League Qualification	4	31	53	14	11	6	54	31	23	WWWLD
Zira	5	31	50	12	14	5	39	32	7	DWDDD
Araz	6	32	43	12	7	13	41	56	-15	WLLDL
Sumqayıt	7	31	41	12	5	14	41	43	-2	WLWWL
Şamaxı FK	8	32	38	9	11	12	30	37	-7	WLLWL
Imisli FK	9	32	33	7	12	13	22	42	-20	LDWLW
Kapaz	10	32	27	8	3	21	25	60	-35	LWWLL
Qabala Relegation	11	32	24	6	6	20	29	48	-19	WDLDL
Karvan Relegation	12	32	14	3	5	24	22	65	-43	LLLLW