Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 13:30 •
Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi
Expected Goals
2.11 (league 1.46)
1.00 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.8% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.0%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Pavia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Castellanzese | 0 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Castellanzese | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 33% |
| Attack | 54% | 62% |
| Defense | 54% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Castellanzese | Pavia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 40% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Draws | 40% | 20% | 30% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Loses | 20% | 40% | 30% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Form: Castellanzese: DDLDWWLLWW • Pavia: LLWLLLLDDW
League goals
| Metric | Castellanzese | Pavia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 11 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 6 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 20 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Castellanzese | Pavia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 60% | 80% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 40% | 30% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 0% | 10% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 0% | 10% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Castellanzese | Pavia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Castellanzese | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Castellanzese | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-8 | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-1 | 2-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Castellanzese | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 73% | 27% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 59.5% | 40.5% |
Advice: Double chance : Castellanzese or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Castellanzese = 2.11 (league 1.46), Pavia = 1.00 (league 1.21)
| Pavia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Castellanzese | 0 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 60.8% · Draw 20.2% · Away win 16.9%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1