Sun, May 10 2026 • 15:30 •
Estadio El Rollo
Expected Goals
1.25 (league 1.56)
1.24 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.4% | 27.1% | 36.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
1 - 0
10.4%
0 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Pradejón | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| La Calzada | 0 | 8.3% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
La Calzada carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: La Calzada +2.4, Pradejón -6.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
La Calzada
vs
Pradejón
Elo gapLa Calzada +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2853.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2853.1
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1426.3 | 1426.8 |
| Form Elo | 1425.2 | 1418.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1488.3 | 1486.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1417.1 | 1388 |
| Defense Elo | 1433.8 | 1460.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.4 | -6.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. La Calzada last-5 Elo change: +2.4; Pradejón last-5 Elo change: -6.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 40% |
| Attack | 28% | 28% |
| Defense | 61% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 44% | 12% | 27% | 24% | 31% | 27% |
| Draws | 19% | 29% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 24% |
| Loses | 38% | 59% | 48% | 53% | 44% | 48% |
La CalzadaWLWLDDLLLWWWLLWLLLLDWDLDDLLWLWDDL
PradejónWLWDLWWLDDLLWDDLWDLLLLWLLLDDLLWWL
League goals
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 16 | 37 | 12 | 17 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 23 | 31 | 54 | 22 | 24 | 46 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | La Calzada | Pradejón | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 73% | 61% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 55% | 24% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 24% | 3% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 12% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-0 | 1-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | La Calzada | Pradejón |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 59% | 41% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 40.8% | 59.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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