Wed, Oct 1 2025 • 18:45 •
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Expected Goals
2.24 (league 2.02)
1.25 (league 1.81)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.1% | 19.8% | 20.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 1
8.6%
2 - 0
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Larne W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Derry City W | 0 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Derry City W | Larne W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 27% |
| Attack | 21% | 33% |
| Defense | 50% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
6.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
62%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Derry City W | Larne W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 15 |
| Wins | 25% | 29% | 27% | 0% | 13% | 7% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 7% |
| Loses | 75% | 71% | 73% | 100% | 75% | 87% |
Form: Derry City W: LLWWLLLWLLLLWLL • Larne W: LLLLLLLLLLWLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Derry City W | Larne W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 9 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 20 | 18 | 38 | 31 | 33 | 64 |
| GA avg | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Derry City W | Larne W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 80% | 47% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 67% | 20% | 80% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 60% | 7% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 40% | 7% | 60% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 33% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Derry City W | Larne W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Derry City W | Larne W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Derry City W | Larne W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 10 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-4 | — | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-1 | 1-9 | 11-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 9 | 11 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Derry City W | Larne W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 52% | 48% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Advice: Double chance : Derry City W or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Derry City W = 2.24 (league 2.02), Larne W = 1.25 (league 1.81)
| Larne W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Derry City W | 0 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.1% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 20.2%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1