Liga MX — Mexico
Thu, Dec 4 2025 • 03:10 • Estadio BBVA
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.12 (league 1.57) 1.72 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.6% 23.8% 50.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.3%
0 - 1
10.0%
1 - 2
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monterrey 0 5.8% 10.0% 8.6% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7%
1 6.5% 11.3% 9.7% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8%
2 3.7% 6.3% 5.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5%
3 1.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMonterreyToluca
Played55
Form27%60%
Attack40%40%
Defense40%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.83 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

92%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Monterrey Toluca
HATHAT
Played9101910919
Wins67%40%53%60%67%63%
Draws33%10%21%30%22%26%
Loses0%50%26%10%11%11%

Form: Monterrey: LWWWWWWWDLWDDWLDLWL • Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWD

League goals

Metric Monterrey Toluca
HATHAT
GF total201636271845
GF avg2.21.61.92.72.02.4
GA total9223112719
GA avg1.02.21.61.20.81.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMonterreyToluca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%74%79%63%
1.558%53%74%26%
2.532%16%53%5%
3.511%11%21%5%
4.50%5%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMonterreyToluca
HATHAT
Clean sheets325347
Failed to score022134

Penalties

MetricMonterreyToluca
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total53

Streaks

MetricMonterreyToluca
Wins77
Draws23
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-02-46-20-3
Biggest losses—6-23-41-0
Goals For4464
Goals Against2642

Model comparison

MetricMonterreyToluca
Form31%69%
Att50%50%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h29%71%
Goals38%62%
Total35.2%64.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.82 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.65 @ 188Bet
Away2.59 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.20 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ William Hill
No2.53 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Monterrey = 1.12 (league 1.57), Toluca = 1.72 (league 1.16)

Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monterrey 0 5.8% 10.0% 8.6% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7%
1 6.5% 11.3% 9.7% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8%
2 3.7% 6.3% 5.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5%
3 1.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.6% · Draw 23.8% · Away win 50.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1