Sun, May 10 2026 • 23:00 •
Allianz Field
Expected Goals
1.90 (league 1.27)
0.50 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.8% | 20.0% | 8.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.3%
2 - 0
16.4%
3 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Austin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Minnesota United FC | 0 | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.3% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Minnesota United FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 117 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Minnesota United FC +40.5, Austin +9.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Minnesota United FC
vs
Austin
Elo gapMinnesota United FC +117
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3005.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3005.6
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1543.7 | 1461.9 |
| Form Elo | 1561.5 | 1467.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1510.5 | 1447.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1524.7 | 1439.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1530.4 | 1464 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +40.5 | +9.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Minnesota United FC last-5 Elo change: +40.5; Austin last-5 Elo change: +9.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 47% |
| Attack | 50% | 56% |
| Defense | 75% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 50% | 57% | 55% | 50% | 0% | 27% |
| Draws | 25% | 14% | 18% | 33% | 40% | 36% |
| Loses | 25% | 29% | 27% | 17% | 60% | 36% |
Minnesota United FCDWLLDWWWWLW
AustinDWLLDDLDLWW
League goals
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 1 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 15 | 19 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Minnesota United FC | Austin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 64% | 91% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 36% | 45% | 64% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 18% | 9% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 9% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 2-3 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 6-0 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 37% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 71% | 29% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 58.7% | 41.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.75 @ Betano
Draw4.20 @ Betano
Away4.75 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.68 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.26 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.20 @ Betfair
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League standings
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