Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Serie A 🌍 Brazil

Sat, Aug 8 2026 · 19:00

Gremio

2 - 1

Sao Paulo

🏆 Serie A

🌍 Brazil

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.49

League avg: 1.10

Both

2.56

League avg: 2.40

Away

1.07

League avg: 1.30

1X2 Probability

Home

41%

ELO-based: 41%

Draw

28%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

31%

ELO-based: 35%

Goal Probability

2.5+

48%

3.5+

28%

BTTS

53%

Best Score Tips

1 - 112%

1 - 012%

2 - 19%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Gremio vs Sao Paulo

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Gremio vs Sao Paulo.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Sao Paulo
		0	1	2	3	4
Gremio	0	7.7%	8.3%	4.4%	1.6%	0.4%
	1	11.5%	12.3%	6.6%	2.4%	0.6%
	2	8.6%	9.2%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
	3	4.3%	4.6%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%
	4	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1583-5

League

1613±0

Away

1553-24

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Low confidence, high upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Gremio	1583	1578	1557	1610	1617	-5
Sao Paulo	1553	1533	1486	1509	1615	-24

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Gremio	14	20	22	5	7	8	22	26	DWLLD
Sao Paulo	12	20	26	7	5	8	25	23	LDLLD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Gremio	5	33%	88%	0%	1.4	1.8
Sao Paulo	5	13%	50%	13%	0.8	1.4

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Gremio	1.6	0.6	1.1	1.2	1.4	1.3
Sao Paulo	1.7	0.9	1.3	0.9	1.4	1.2

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Gremio	1.1	1.6	1.3	1.2
Sao Paulo	1.3	0.9	1.2	1.4

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	9.52%	12.50%	3.70%	4.17%
16-30	4.76%	16.67%	18.52%	12.50%
31-45	19.05%	4.17%	22.22%	16.67%
46-60	33.33%	20.83%	22.22%	29.17%
61-75	19.05%	29.17%	29.63%	12.50%
76-90	14.29%	16.67%	3.70%	25.00%

Team Comparison

71%

Form

29%

64%

Attack

36%

44%

Defense

56%

Poisson

H2H

45%

Goals

55%

54%

Total

46%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Gremio	5-3		1-3	2-0	5 / 1	3 / 2
Sao Paulo	4-1	1-2	1-2	2-0	4 / 2	2 / 3

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Gremio	5	3	2	6	2	4
Sao Paulo	4	3	1	4	1	3

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Gremio	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Sao Paulo	3	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-02-12	Sao Paulo	2 - 0 FT	Gremio
2025-10-16	Gremio	2 - 0 FT	Sao Paulo
2025-05-18	Sao Paulo	2 - 1 FT	Gremio
2024-12-01	Gremio	2 - 1 FT	Sao Paulo
2024-07-17	Sao Paulo	1 - 0 FT	Gremio
2023-10-21	Sao Paulo	3 - 0 FT	Gremio

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.40	Betano
Draw	3.25	Bet365
Away win	3.35	Betano
Over 2.5	2.18	Pinnacle
Under 2.5	1.82	Betano
BTTS Yes	1.91	Bet365
BTTS No	2.02	Unibet

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	Gremio	Sao Paulo
expected_goals	1.62	1.37
Ball Possession	48%	52%
Total Shots	12	18
Shots on Goal	5	5
Shots off Goal	3	8
Blocked Shots	4	5
Shots insidebox	8	12
Shots outsidebox	4	6
Corner Kicks	7	7
Offsides	2	2
Fouls	12	19
Yellow Cards	4	3
Red Cards	—	—
Goalkeeper Saves	4	3
Total passes	421	462
Passes accurate	364	392
Passes %	86%	85%
goals_prevented	0.13	0.13

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+5'	Gremio	Walter Kannemann	Card	Yellow Card
90+5'	Sao Paulo	Robert Arboleda	Card	Yellow Card
90+2'	Sao Paulo	Andre Silva	Card	Yellow Card
90+1'	Gremio	M. Villasanti	subst	Out: Walter Kannemann
90+1'	Gremio	C. Pavon	subst	Out: L. Perez
90+1'	Gremio	Marlon	Card	Yellow Card
89'	Sao Paulo	Pablo Maia	subst	Out: G. Santana
89'	Sao Paulo	Wendell	subst	Out: Victor Sa
86'	Gremio	C. Pavon	Goal	Normal Goal
81'	Gremio	Diego Caito	Card	Yellow Card
78'	Gremio	Carlos Vinicius	subst	Out: M. Braithwaite
77'	Sao Paulo	Jonathan Calleri	subst	Out: Andre Silva
75'	Sao Paulo	Luciano	Card	Yellow Card
71'	Sao Paulo	Ferreira	subst	Out: Cauly
70'	Sao Paulo	Danielzinho	subst	Out: D. Bobadilla
54'	Gremio	J. Nardoni	subst	Out: Dodi
48'	Gremio	Wallace	Goal	Assist: Carlos Vinicius
46'	Gremio	J. Cabral	subst	Out: F. Amuzu
45+5'	Gremio	M. Villasanti	Card	Yellow Card
45+2'	Sao Paulo	Marcos Antonio	Goal	Assist: Luciano

League Standings

Local standings cache · Serie A 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Palmeiras Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	1	21	47	14	5	2	38	16	22	WLWWW
Flamengo Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	2	20	39	11	6	3	37	18	19	DDWWL
Atletico Paranaense Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	3	21	37	11	4	6	28	19	9	DWWWW
Fluminense Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	4	22	35	9	8	5	31	26	5	DDDDD
Bahia Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	5	21	32	8	8	5	29	25	4	DDDWW
RB Bragantino Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	6	20	31	9	4	7	26	20	6	DDWWW
Botafogo Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	7	21	30	8	6	7	35	33	2	DWDWL
Coritiba Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	8	22	30	8	6	8	27	29	-2	WLDLL
Cruzeiro Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	9	21	30	8	6	7	27	30	-3	WLWDW
Atletico-MG Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	10	21	29	8	5	8	27	27	0	DWDWL
Corinthians Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	11	21	29	7	8	6	22	20	2	DDWWW
Sao Paulo	12	21	26	7	5	9	26	25	1	LDLLD
Vitoria	13	21	26	7	5	9	22	31	-9	LLDWL
Gremio	14	21	25	6	7	8	24	27	-3	WDLLW
Mirassol	15	20	23	6	5	9	23	27	-4	WDWLW
Santos	16	20	22	5	7	8	29	33	-4	DLWLL
Internacional Relegation - Serie B	17	21	22	5	7	9	23	27	-4	DLLLL
Remo Relegation - Serie B	18	22	22	5	7	10	26	36	-10	DLWLW
Vasco DA Gama Relegation - Serie B	19	20	21	5	6	9	23	31	-8	DLLLL
Chapecoense-sc Relegation - Serie B	20	21	10	1	7	13	20	43	-23	LDLLL