Boca Juniors 1-1 Velez Sarsfield: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Boca Juniors 1-1 Velez Sarsfield: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Liga Profesional Argentina 🌍 Argentina

Sat, Aug 8 2026 · 22:15

Boca Juniors

1 - 1

Velez Sarsfield

🏆 Liga Profesional Argentina

🌍 Argentina

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

0.98

League avg: 1.40

Both

1.85

League avg: 2.60

Away

0.87

League avg: 1.20

1X2 Probability

Home

32%

ELO-based: 40%

Draw

32%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

36%

ELO-based: 36%

Goal Probability

2.5+

39%

3.5+

22%

BTTS

45%

Best Score Tips

0 - 016%

1 - 015%

0 - 114%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Velez Sarsfield
		0	1	2	3	4
Boca Juniors	0	15.7%	13.7%	6.0%	1.7%	0.4%
	1	15.3%	13.4%	5.9%	1.7%	0.4%
	2	7.5%	6.6%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
	3	2.5%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
	4	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

ELO Overview

Home

1598-24

League

1539±0

Away

1581+20

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Low confidence, high upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Boca Juniors	1598	1601	1562	1554	1641	-24
Velez Sarsfield	1581	1591	1518	1507	1638	+20

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Boca Juniors	11	20	34	9	7	4	27	17	WLLDW
Velez Sarsfield	1	20	37	10	7	3	23	14	DLWWW

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Boca Juniors	5	47%	50%	36%	1.4	1.8
Velez Sarsfield	5	67%	43%	79%	1.2	0.6

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Boca Juniors	1.1	1.6	1.4	0.6	1.1	0.9
Velez Sarsfield	1.0	1.3	1.2	0.6	0.8	0.7

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Boca Juniors	1.4	1.1	0.9	0.6
Velez Sarsfield	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.8

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	3.70%	24.00%	23.53%	16.67%
16-30	11.11%		11.76%	33.33%
31-45	25.93%	20.00%	17.65%	8.33%
46-60	18.52%	20.00%	17.65%
61-75	7.41%	16.00%	17.65%	25.00%
76-90	29.63%	20.00%		16.67%

Team Comparison

41%

Form

59%

54%

Attack

46%

25%

Defense

75%

45%

Poisson

55%

H2H

53%

Goals

47%

46%

Total

54%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Boca Juniors	2-0	0-4	2-3	3-0	2 / 4	3 / 3
Velez Sarsfield	2-1	1-3	0-1	3-2	2 / 3	2 / 3

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Boca Juniors	10	6	4	3	2	1
Velez Sarsfield	9	5	4	4	3	1

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Boca Juniors	3	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Velez Sarsfield	2	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-02-09	Velez Sarsfield	2 - 1 FT	Boca Juniors
2024-11-28	Boca Juniors	3 - 4 FT	Velez Sarsfield
2024-06-14	Boca Juniors	1 - 0 FT	Velez Sarsfield
2023-02-26	Velez Sarsfield	1 - 2 FT	Boca Juniors
2022-10-02	Boca Juniors	1 - 0 FT	Velez Sarsfield
2022-04-10	Velez Sarsfield	0 - 0 FT	Boca Juniors

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.90	Superbet
Draw	3.35	Betano
Away win	5.10	Betano
Over 2.5	2.78	Pinnacle
Under 2.5	1.50	Betano
BTTS Yes	2.38	Bet365
BTTS No	1.62	William Hill

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	Boca Juniors	Velez Sarsfield
expected_goals	1.82	0.61
Ball Possession	59%	41%
Total Shots	23	6
Shots on Goal	9	3
Shots off Goal	9	3
Blocked Shots	5	0
Shots insidebox	13	2
Shots outsidebox	10	4
Corner Kicks	4	3
Offsides	2	2
Fouls	12	8
Yellow Cards	2	3
Red Cards	—	—
Goalkeeper Saves	1	8
Total passes	470	346
Passes accurate	391	269
Passes %	83%	78%
goals_prevented	0.91	0.91

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
74'	Boca Juniors	L. Flores	subst	Out: S. Villa
63'	Boca Juniors	Miguel Merentiel	subst	Out: M. Gimenez
63'	Velez Sarsfield	D. Godoy	subst	Out: T. Aguirre
63'	Velez Sarsfield	E. Gomez	subst	Out: C. Baeza
63'	Boca Juniors	T. Aranda	subst	Out: A. Velasco
60'	Velez Sarsfield	M. Pellegrini	Card	Yellow Card
54'	Velez Sarsfield	E. Gomez	Card	Yellow Card
46'	Velez Sarsfield	D. Valdes	subst	Out: S. Escobar
46'	Boca Juniors	A. Costa	subst	Out: M. Pellegrino
44'	Boca Juniors	A. Costa	Card	Yellow Card
42'	Velez Sarsfield	L. Robertone	Card	Yellow Card
41'	Velez Sarsfield	G. Barros Schelotto	Card	Yellow Card
39'	Boca Juniors	S. Ascacibar	Goal	Normal Goal
36'	Boca Juniors	L. Blanco	Card	Yellow Card
12'	Velez Sarsfield	D. Valdes	Goal	Normal Goal

League Standings

Local standings cache · Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Estudiantes L.P. Knockout Phase	1	16	31	9	4	3	19	7	12	WLLWL
Boca Juniors Knockout Phase	2	16	30	8	6	2	22	9	13	DDWDL
Velez Sarsfield Knockout Phase	3	16	28	7	7	2	18	12	6	DWWWL
Talleres Cordoba Knockout Phase	4	16	26	7	5	4	17	13	4	LWLLL
Independiente Knockout Phase	5	16	24	6	6	4	24	20	4	LLWWL
Lanus Knockout Phase	6	16	24	6	6	4	18	15	3	WLLWL
San Lorenzo Knockout Phase	7	16	22	5	7	4	14	14	0	WLLWL
Union Santa Fe Knockout Phase	8	16	21	5	6	5	24	20	4	LLWLD
Instituto Cordoba	9	16	21	6	3	7	17	17	0	WWWLW
Defensa Y Justicia	10	16	19	4	7	5	18	21	-3	WLWDL
Gimnasia M.	11	16	19	5	4	7	14	22	-8	LWLWW
Platense	12	16	16	3	7	6	10	15	-5	DWLLD
Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	16	16	4	4	8	11	21	-10	WWLLL
Newells Old Boys	14	16	15	3	6	7	15	27	-12	WLDLW
Deportivo Riestra	15	16	11	1	8	7	5	12	-7	LWLLW
Independ. Rivadavia Knockout Phase	1	16	34	10	4	2	29	15	14	LWLWD
River Plate Knockout Phase	2	16	29	9	2	5	22	12	10	LLLLL
Argentinos JRS Knockout Phase	3	16	29	8	5	3	17	13	4	WWWWL
Rosario Central Knockout Phase	4	16	28	8	4	4	20	16	4	WWDLL
Belgrano Cordoba Knockout Phase	5	16	26	7	5	4	17	13	4	WWDLW
Gimnasia L.P. Knockout Phase	6	16	26	8	2	6	19	19	0	LWWWL
Huracan Knockout Phase	7	16	22	5	7	4	17	13	4	WDLWL
Racing Club Knockout Phase	8	16	21	5	6	5	17	15	2	LLLDW
Barracas Central	9	16	21	5	6	5	15	15	0	LWWWL
Tigre	10	16	20	4	8	4	18	15	3	DWDWL
Sarmiento Junin	11	16	19	6	1	9	13	20	-7	WWLLL
Banfield	12	16	18	5	3	8	17	19	-2	WLDWL
Atletico Tucuman	13	16	14	3	5	8	15	20	-5	LDWDW
Aldosivi	14	16	8	0	8	8	6	19	-13	DLLLD
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	15	16	5	1	2	13	5	24	-19	LDLWL
Velez Sarsfield Knockout Phase	1	4	10	3	1	0	6	2	4	DWWWL
Instituto Cordoba Knockout Phase	2	4	9	3	0	1	4	2	2	WWWLW
Newells Old Boys Knockout Phase	3	5	7	2	1	2	6	5	1	WLDLW
Defensa Y Justicia Knockout Phase	4	4	7	2	1	1	5	6	-1	WLWDL
Estudiantes L.P. Knockout Phase	5	5	6	2	0	3	7	5	2	WLLWL
Lanus Knockout Phase	6	4	6	2	0	2	5	3	2	WLLWL
Deportivo Riestra Knockout Phase	7	5	6	2	0	3	6	5	1	LWLLW
Independiente Knockout Phase	8	4	6	2	0	2	3	2	1	LLWWL
Gimnasia M.	9	4	6	2	0	2	3	2	1	LWLWW
Central Cordoba de Santiago	10	4	6	2	0	2	3	4	-1	WWLLL
Boca Juniors	11	5	6	1	3	1	5	7	-2	DDWDL
San Lorenzo	12	5	6	2	0	3	2	4	-2	WLLWL
Platense	13	5	5	1	2	2	5	9	-4	DWLLD
Union Santa Fe	14	5	4	1	1	3	5	8	-3	LLWLD
Talleres Cordoba	15	4	3	1	0	3	5	7	-2	LWLLL
Argentinos JRS Knockout Phase	1	4	12	4	0	0	9	3	6	WWWWL
Belgrano Cordoba Knockout Phase	2	5	10	3	1	1	6	2	4	WWDLW
Barracas Central Knockout Phase	3	4	9	3	0	1	3	2	1	LWWWL
Gimnasia L.P. Knockout Phase	4	5	9	3	0	2	6	7	-1	LWWWL
Tigre Knockout Phase	5	5	8	2	2	1	4	2	2	DWDWL
Huracan Knockout Phase	6	4	7	2	1	1	4	2	2	WDLWL
Rosario Central Knockout Phase	7	4	7	2	1	1	4	3	1	WWDLL
Independ. Rivadavia Knockout Phase	8	5	7	2	1	2	5	6	-1	LWLWD
Banfield	9	5	7	2	1	2	4	5	-1	WLDWL
Sarmiento Junin	10	4	6	2	0	2	8	8	0	WWLLL
Atletico Tucuman	11	4	5	1	2	1	3	2	1	LDWDW
Racing Club	12	5	4	1	1	3	4	7	-3	LLLDW
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	4	4	1	1	2	2	5	-3	LDLWL
Aldosivi	14	5	2	0	2	3	3	6	-3	DLLLD
River Plate	15	4	0	0	0	4	0	4	-4	LLLLL