Lexington 1-0 Phoenix Rising: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Lexington 1-0 Phoenix Rising: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 USL Championship 🌍 USA

Sat, Aug 8 2026 · 23:00

Lexington

1 - 0

Phoenix Rising

🏆 USL Championship

🌍 USA

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.59

League avg: 1.60

Both

2.76

League avg: 2.90

Away

1.17

League avg: 1.30

1X2 Probability

Home

44%

ELO-based: 46%

Draw

27%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

29%

ELO-based: 30%

Goal Probability

2.5+

52%

3.5+

31%

BTTS

53%

Best Score Tips

1 - 112%

1 - 010%

2 - 19%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Lexington vs Phoenix Rising

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Lexington vs Phoenix Rising.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Phoenix Rising
		0	1	2	3	4
Lexington	0	6.3%	7.4%	4.3%	1.7%	0.5%
	1	10.1%	11.8%	6.9%	2.7%	0.8%
	2	8.0%	9.4%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
	3	4.2%	5.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
	4	1.7%	2.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1537+11

League

1517±0

Away

1464-5

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Medium confidence, medium upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Lexington	1537	1562	1537	1530	1483	+11
Phoenix Rising	1464	1453	1482	1515	1441	-5

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Lexington	8	17	25	7	4	6	27	22	WLWDW
Phoenix Rising	11	18	22	5	7	6	24	25	LLWDD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Lexington	5	67%	100%	13%	2.0	1.4
Phoenix Rising	5	33%	100%	0%	1.6	2.0

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Lexington	1.8	1.4	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.3
Phoenix Rising	1.7	1.0	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Lexington	1.6	1.8	1.3	1.3
Phoenix Rising	1.3	1.0	1.4	1.4

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	16.00%	13.04%	16.67%	15.38%
16-30	12.00%	4.35%	16.67%	7.69%
31-45	12.00%	13.04%	16.67%	26.92%
46-60	16.00%	13.04%	4.17%	26.92%
61-75	20.00%	26.09%	25.00%	7.69%
76-90	24.00%	30.43%	20.83%	15.38%

Team Comparison

67%

Form

33%

56%

Attack

44%

59%

Defense

41%

Poisson

H2H

Goals

61%

Total

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Lexington	3-0	1-4	1-4	3-1	3 / 4	4 / 3
Phoenix Rising	3-0	0-3	0-2	3-0	3 / 3	4 / 3

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Lexington	6	4	2	4	1	3
Phoenix Rising	5	3	2	4	2	2

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Lexington	0	0%	0	0%	—	—
Phoenix Rising	6	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2025-08-09	Lexington	2 - 0 FT	Phoenix Rising
2025-07-05	Phoenix Rising	0 - 1 FT	Lexington

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.88	Betano
Draw	3.86	Pinnacle
Away win	4.00	Bet365
Over 2.5	1.70	Bet365
Under 2.5	2.25	Unibet
BTTS Yes	1.67	Bet365
BTTS No	2.35	Unibet

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
31'	Phoenix Rising	JP Scearce	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · USL Championship 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Tampa Bay Rowdies Play Offs: 1/8-finals	1	20	44	13	5	2	38	19	19	WWWWD
Charleston Battery Play Offs: 1/8-finals	2	20	33	10	3	7	39	27	12	LWWLD
Detroit City Play Offs: 1/8-finals	3	19	32	9	5	5	26	17	9	DWDLW
Louisville City Play Offs: 1/8-finals	4	20	31	9	4	7	36	34	2	WDLWL
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Play Offs: 1/8-finals	5	20	30	9	3	8	23	21	2	WDWLL
Indy Eleven Play Offs: 1/8-finals	6	18	25	7	4	7	21	21	0	WDLLL
Rhode Island Play Offs: 1/8-finals	7	18	25	7	4	7	27	21	6	LWLWW
Hartford Athletic Play Offs: 1/8-finals	8	19	24	5	9	5	15	18	-3	WDLDL
Miami FC	9	21	22	5	7	9	25	34	-9	LLDLL
Loudoun United	10	19	19	3	10	6	21	30	-9	DLWWD
Birmingham Legion	11	18	17	3	8	7	20	24	-4	LWLDL
Brooklyn	12	18	13	3	4	11	18	34	-16	LLLDW
Sporting JAX	13	20	8	1	5	14	23	52	-29	LLLDW
Orange County SC Play Offs: 1/8-finals	1	20	34	9	7	4	31	25	6	LLWWD
New Mexico United Play Offs: 1/8-finals	2	17	33	10	3	4	26	17	9	WWWWW
San Antonio Play Offs: 1/8-finals	3	20	32	8	8	4	26	24	2	LDWWL
El Paso Locomotive Play Offs: 1/8-finals	4	20	31	9	4	7	32	27	5	WWWLW
Sacramento Republic Play Offs: 1/8-finals	5	19	30	8	6	5	25	16	9	WDLWW
FC Tulsa Play Offs: 1/8-finals	6	19	29	8	5	6	20	18	2	LLWWD
Las Vegas Lights Play Offs: 1/8-finals	7	20	29	8	5	7	28	28	0	WWDDW
Lexington Play Offs: 1/8-finals	8	19	28	8	4	7	28	23	5	LWWDW
Colorado Springs	9	19	28	8	4	7	31	28	3	WLLWW
Oakland Roots	10	21	23	5	8	8	26	30	-4	DLDLL
Phoenix Rising	11	19	22	5	7	7	24	26	-2	LDDWL
Monterey Bay	12	21	16	4	4	13	22	37	-15	DLLLL