One Knoxville 2-1 Sarasota Paradise: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

One Knoxville 2-1 Sarasota Paradise: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 USL League One 🌍 USA

Sat, Aug 8 2026 · 23:30

One Knoxville

2 - 1

Sarasota Paradise

🏆 USL League One

🌍 USA

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.64

League avg: 1.70

Both

2.56

League avg: 2.60

Away

0.91

League avg: 0.90

1X2 Probability

Home

55%

ELO-based: 48%

Draw

25%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

20%

ELO-based: 28%

Goal Probability

2.5+

49%

3.5+

28%

BTTS

50%

Best Score Tips

1 - 013%

1 - 112%

2 - 011%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: One Knoxville vs Sarasota Paradise

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for One Knoxville vs Sarasota Paradise.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Sarasota Paradise
		0	1	2	3	4
One Knoxville	0	7.8%	7.1%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
	1	12.7%	11.6%	5.3%	1.6%	0.4%
	2	10.5%	9.6%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%
	3	5.7%	5.2%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
	4	2.4%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1545-22

League

1481±0

Away

1449-2

ELO Verdict

Home edge, High confidence, low upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
One Knoxville	1545	1550	1526	1546	1529	-22
Sarasota Paradise	1449	1447	1484	1445	1414	-2

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
One Knoxville	3	18	33	10	3	5	31	20	WWLLL
Sarasota Paradise	15	18	18	5	3	10	17	28	LWLDD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
One Knoxville	5	40%	78%	0%	1.4	1.8
Sarasota Paradise	5	33%	44%	22%	0.8	1.4

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
One Knoxville	1.6	1.9	1.7	1.1	1.1	1.1
Sarasota Paradise	1.3	0.6	0.9	1.3	1.8	1.6

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
One Knoxville	1.7	1.6	1.1	1.1
Sarasota Paradise	0.9	0.6	1.6	1.8

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	6.90%	5.88%	4.55%	7.14%
16-30	17.24%	5.88%	22.73%	14.29%
31-45	17.24%	17.65%	18.18%	14.29%
46-60	20.69%	29.41%	13.64%	17.86%
61-75	6.90%	29.41%	27.27%	21.43%
76-90	31.03%	11.76%	13.64%	25.00%

Team Comparison

55%

Form

45%

64%

Attack

36%

44%

Defense

56%

73%

Poisson

27%

H2H

67%

Goals

33%

61%

Total

39%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
One Knoxville	3-1	0-4	2-3	3-1	3 / 4	3 / 3
Sarasota Paradise	2-0	0-2	1-3	4-1	2 / 2	3 / 4

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
One Knoxville	6	3	3	3	1	2
Sarasota Paradise	5	2	3	6	1	5

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
One Knoxville	0	0%	1	100.00%	—	—
Sarasota Paradise	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-04-04	Sarasota Paradise	1 - 2 FT	One Knoxville

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.60	Homepage market
Draw	3.60	Homepage market
Away win	4.75	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	1.90	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+5'	One Knoxville	B. Diene	Goal	Normal Goal
85'	One Knoxville	A. Caputo	subst	Out: J. J. Murphy
84'	Sarasota Paradise	R. Valentine	Goal	Assist: A. Walker
83'	Sarasota Paradise	E. Bryant	subst	Out: C. O'Dwyer
82'	Sarasota Paradise	A. Walker	Goal	Missed Penalty
81'	One Knoxville	A. Caputo	Card	Yellow Card
78'	Sarasota Paradise	A. Rosa	Card	Yellow Card
73'	Sarasota Paradise	E. Terzaghi	subst	Out: G. McLaughlin
71'	One Knoxville	S. McLeod	subst	Out: Bull
70'	One Knoxville	D. Krioutchenkov	subst	Out: M. Goling
65'	Sarasota Paradise	A. Sogaard	subst	Out: R. Valentine
65'	Sarasota Paradise	S. Roed	subst	Out: B. Krueger
61'	One Knoxville	R. Gill	subst	Out: N. Rosamilia
52'	One Knoxville	E. Conway	Goal	Normal Goal
46'	One Knoxville	J. Brown	subst	Out: S. McLeod
46'	Sarasota Paradise	S. Karani	subst	Out: J. Bender

League Standings

Local standings cache · USL League One 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Charlotte Independence Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	1	20	42	13	3	4	46	28	18	WWWWL
Union Omaha Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	2	20	41	13	2	5	34	22	12	WWWDW
One Knoxville Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	3	20	37	11	4	5	34	22	12	DWLLL
Forward Madison Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	4	19	36	11	3	5	38	20	18	DLWWW
Boise Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	5	21	34	10	4	7	31	29	2	WDLWW
Spokane Velocity Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	6	19	32	10	2	7	27	25	2	LWWWL
Alta Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	7	23	32	8	8	7	32	27	5	LWLLD
Chattanooga Red Wolves Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	8	18	31	10	1	7	33	26	7	WLLWW
Corpus Christi	9	21	29	7	8	6	26	28	-2	WWDWD
Fort Wayne	10	20	27	7	6	7	26	24	2	LLLLW
Westchester SC	11	20	22	6	4	10	31	29	2	WLDWD
Portland Hearts of Pine	12	19	21	5	6	8	29	33	-4	LDLLW
Naples	13	20	20	6	2	12	23	34	-11	LWLLL
Greenville Triumph	14	20	20	5	5	10	22	33	-11	DDLDW
Sarasota Paradise	15	20	18	5	3	12	19	33	-14	LLDDL
Richmond Kickers	16	19	18	5	3	11	18	35	-17	WWLLL
NY Cosmos	17	19	14	4	2	13	19	40	-21	WLLLD