Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Veikkausliiga 🌍 Finland

Sat, Jul 11 2026 · 14:00

Gnistan

4 - 2

Mariehamn

🏆 Veikkausliiga

🌍 Finland

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.93

League avg: 1.40

Both

2.81

League avg: 1.80

Away

0.88

League avg: 0.40

1X2 Probability

Home

65%

ELO-based: 47%

Draw

23%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

12%

ELO-based: 29%

Goal Probability

2.5+

52%

3.5+

31%

BTTS

51%

Best Score Tips

1 - 012%

2 - 011%

1 - 110%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Gnistan vs Mariehamn

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Gnistan vs Mariehamn.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Mariehamn
		0	1	2	3	4
Gnistan	0	6.0%	5.3%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
	1	11.6%	10.3%	4.5%	1.3%	0.3%
	2	11.2%	9.9%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%
	3	7.2%	6.3%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%
	4	3.4%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1533+13

League

1589±0

Away

1445-39

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Medium confidence, medium upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Gnistan	1533	1555	1500	1578	1499	+13
Mariehamn	1445	1412	1458	1460	1428	-39

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Gnistan	6	14	19	5	4	5	19	18	WWDDL
Mariehamn	12	14	4	0	4	10	6	29	LLLLL

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Gnistan	5	53%	43%	79%	1.2	0.6
Mariehamn	5	0%	7%	0%	0.2	3.0

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Gnistan	1.9	0.9	1.4	1.6	1.0	1.3
Mariehamn	0.6	0.3	0.4	2.0	2.1	2.1

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Gnistan	1.4	1.9	1.3	1.6
Mariehamn	0.4	0.3	2.1	2.1

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	22.22%		5.26%	10.34%
16-30	16.67%		5.26%	20.69%
31-45	5.56%	50.00%	26.32%	13.79%
46-60	22.22%	16.67%	26.32%	6.90%
61-75	27.78%	33.33%	10.53%	17.24%
76-90	5.56%		26.32%	31.03%

Team Comparison

Form

86%

Attack

14%

83%

Defense

17%

86%

Poisson

14%

93%

H2H

Goals

86%

Total

14%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Gnistan	5-0	0-3	1-5	2-0	5 / 3	5 / 2
Mariehamn			0-4	4-0	2 / 1	4 / 4

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Gnistan	4	3	1	4	1	3
Mariehamn	0	0	0	9	4	5

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Gnistan	0	0%	0	0%	—	—
Mariehamn	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-06-13	Mariehamn	0 - 3 FT	Gnistan
2026-01-30	Gnistan	2 - 2 FT	Mariehamn
2025-08-09	Mariehamn	2 - 5 FT	Gnistan
2025-05-03	Gnistan	2 - 0 FT	Mariehamn
2025-02-08	Gnistan	4 - 0 FT	Mariehamn
2024-09-15	Gnistan	2 - 1 FT	Mariehamn

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.36	Betano
Draw	5.65	Pinnacle
Away win	9.40	10Bet
Over 2.5	1.55	Betano
Under 2.5	2.60	Pinnacle
BTTS Yes	1.87	Betfair
BTTS No	2.00	William Hill

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+4'	Gnistan	D. Perez	Goal	Normal Goal
90+1'	Mariehamn	T. Koivisto	Card	Yellow Card
81'	Mariehamn	A. Stroud	subst	Out: L. Andersson
81'	Mariehamn	J. Heyden	subst	Out: A. Bergvik
80'	Gnistan	O. Hannula	subst	Out: J. Selenge
79'	Mariehamn	W. Nunez	Goal	Assist: J. Svedberg
77'	Gnistan	A. Akinyemi	subst	Out: D. Perez
77'	Gnistan	G. Europaeus	subst	Out: S. Eremenko
71'	Gnistan	S. Ylatupa	subst	Out: A. Atarah
71'	Gnistan	A. Akinyemi	Goal	Normal Goal
65'	Mariehamn	A. Larsson	subst	Out: W. Nunez
53'	Mariehamn	A. Stroud	Goal	Assist: A. Larsson
51'	Gnistan	A. Akinyemi	Goal	Assist: J. Latonen
46'	Gnistan	R. Eremenko	subst	Out: J. Latonen
46'	Mariehamn	V. Widlund	subst	Out: J. Svedberg
26'	Mariehamn	S. Ngulube	subst	Out: A. Soiniemi
23'	Gnistan	R. Eremenko	Goal	Missed Penalty
6'	Gnistan	S. Ylatupa	Goal	Normal Goal

League Standings

Local standings cache · Veikkausliiga 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
KuPS Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	1	15	30	8	6	1	27	15	12	WWWDD
Inter Turku Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	2	15	30	8	6	1	23	12	11	WDDDD
VPS Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	3	15	27	7	6	2	22	11	11	WWDWW
AC Oulu Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	4	15	26	8	2	5	20	18	2	LDLWD
HJK Helsinki Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	5	15	22	6	4	5	25	19	6	LLWDW
Gnistan Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	6	15	22	6	4	5	23	20	3	WLDDW
Turku PS Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	7	15	22	6	4	5	19	16	3	WLWDL
Lahti Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	8	15	19	5	4	6	18	15	3	WWDDL
Ilves Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	9	15	16	4	4	7	25	29	-4	LDLWW
SJK Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	10	15	14	3	5	7	18	23	-5	LWDDL
FF Jaro Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	11	15	11	2	5	8	15	32	-17	WLDLL
Mariehamn Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	12	15	4	0	4	11	8	33	-25	LLLLL