Superettan — Sweden
Wed, May 13 2026 • 17:00 • Falcon Alkoholfri Arena
Not Started

Falkenbergs FF

—

Varbergs BoIS FC

Expected Goals
1.23 (league 1.63) 0.47 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
55.1% 30.5% 14.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
22.5%
0 - 0
18.3%
2 - 0
13.8%
Score & goals probability table
Varbergs BoIS FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Falkenbergs FF 0 18.3% 8.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 22.5% 10.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.8% 6.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Falkenbergs FF carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 110 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Falkenbergs FF +17.8, Varbergs BoIS FC +19.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Falkenbergs FF Elo 1629.1 · +17.8
vs
Varbergs BoIS FC Elo 1554 · +19.6
Elo gapFalkenbergs FF +110
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3183.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3183.1
Elo home share 65%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Falkenbergs FF Varbergs BoIS FC
Overall Elo1629.11554
Form Elo1641.61561.2
Home / Away Elo1590.11505.9
Attack Elo16531542.4
Defense Elo1605.21554.4
Last 5 Elo change+17.8+19.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Falkenbergs FF last-5 Elo change: +17.8; Varbergs BoIS FC last-5 Elo change: +19.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFalkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
Played55
Form73%60%
Attack40%55%
Defense75%65%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-3
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Falkenbergs FF Varbergs BoIS FC
HATHAT
Played325426
Wins67%50%60%50%0%33%
Draws33%50%40%25%100%50%
Loses0%0%0%25%0%17%
Falkenbergs FFDWDWW
Varbergs BoIS FCLDWDDW

League goals

Metric Falkenbergs FF Varbergs BoIS FC
HATHAT
GF total3478412
GF avg1.02.01.42.02.02.0
GA total134549
GA avg0.31.50.81.32.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFalkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%60%83%83%
1.540%20%67%67%
2.50%0%33%0%
3.50%0%17%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFalkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets202101
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricFalkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricFalkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
Wins11
Draws12
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-01-24-1—
Biggest losses——1-2—
Goals For1242
Goals Against1222

Model comparison

MetricFalkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
Form55%45%
Att42%58%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h38%62%
Goals44%56%
Total51.0%49.0%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.39 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.50 @ Betfair
Away3.15 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.94 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.65 @ 10Bet
No2.12 @ Unibet
📊

League standings

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