NWSL Women
— USA
Sun, May 10 2026 • 23:00 •
Lumen Field
Expected Goals
1.07 (league 1.22)
1.87 (league 1.07)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.3% | 22.5% | 54.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.6%
0 - 1
9.9%
1 - 2
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Washington Spirit W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Seattle Reign FC | 0 | 5.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Washington Spirit W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 59 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Seattle Reign FC -14.5, Washington Spirit W +33.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Seattle Reign FC
vs
Washington Spirit W
Elo gapWashington Spirit W +59
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3103.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3103.9
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1504.9 | 1599 |
| Form Elo | 1490.4 | 1622 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.3 | 1561.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1457.7 | 1666.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1535.5 | 1589.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.5 | +33.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Seattle Reign FC last-5 Elo change: -14.5; Washington Spirit W last-5 Elo change: +33.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 87% |
| Attack | 56% | 100% |
| Defense | 56% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
55%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 43% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Draws | 25% | 33% | 29% | 25% | 50% | 38% |
| Loses | 25% | 33% | 29% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
Seattle Reign FCWLWWDLD
Washington Spirit WLDDDWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 43% | 57% | 75% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 29% | 50% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 25% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 25% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 2-0 | 0-1 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Seattle Reign FC | Washington Spirit W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 33.5% | 66.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.38 @ 1xBet
Draw3.50 @ Dafabet
Away1.90 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.92 @ Marathonbet
No1.92 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…