Mon, Apr 13 2026 • 23:05 •
Estadio La Independencia
Expected Goals
0.49 (league 1.23)
0.63 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.6% | 43.6% | 32.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
32.8%
0 - 1
20.6%
1 - 0
15.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Cartagena | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Patriotas | 0 | 32.8% | 20.6% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Patriotas | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 60% |
| Attack | 50% | 67% |
| Defense | 42% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Patriotas | Real Cartagena | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 23% | 71% | 33% | 54% |
| Draws | 33% | 43% | 38% | 14% | 67% | 38% |
| Loses | 17% | 57% | 38% | 14% | 0% | 8% |
Form: Patriotas: LWLDLDWDDLDLW • Real Cartagena: WWDWWLDWDDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Patriotas | Real Cartagena | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 5 | 22 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 4 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Patriotas | Real Cartagena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 62% | 92% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 15% | 38% | 46% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 15% | 15% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 15% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Patriotas | Real Cartagena | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Patriotas | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Patriotas | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 2-3 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Patriotas | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 54.7% | 45.3% |
Advice: Double chance : Patriotas or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Patriotas = 0.49 (league 1.23), Real Cartagena = 0.63 (league 0.89)
| Real Cartagena | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Patriotas | 0 | 32.8% | 20.6% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.6% · Draw 43.6% · Away win 32.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1