North Texas 3-1 Tacoma Defiance: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

North Texas 3-1 Tacoma Defiance: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 MLS Next Pro 🌍 USA

Sun, Aug 9 2026 · 00:45

North Texas

3 - 1

Tacoma Defiance

🏆 MLS Next Pro

🌍 USA

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

2.22

League avg: 1.70

Both

3.81

League avg: 3.20

Away

1.59

League avg: 1.50

1X2 Probability

Home

49%

ELO-based: 38%

Draw

24%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

27%

ELO-based: 38%

Goal Probability

2.5+

63%

3.5+

39%

BTTS

60%

Best Score Tips

2 - 19%

1 - 18%

2 - 27%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Tacoma Defiance
		0	1	2	3	4
North Texas	0	2.2%	3.5%	2.8%	1.5%	0.6%
	1	4.9%	7.8%	6.2%	3.3%	1.3%
	2	5.4%	8.7%	6.9%	3.7%	1.5%
	3	4.0%	6.4%	5.1%	2.7%	1.1%
	4	2.2%	3.6%	2.8%	1.5%	0.6%

ELO Overview

Home

1500-1

League

1501±0

Away

1501+35

ELO Verdict

Draw edge, Low confidence, high upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
North Texas	1500	1506	1496	1541	1421	-1
Tacoma Defiance	1501	1519	1489	1594	1394	+35

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
North Texas	10	19	24	8	0	11	32	33	WLWLL
Tacoma Defiance	7	21	33	11	0	10	31	31	LWWWW

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
North Texas	5	40%	64%	9%	1.4	2.0
Tacoma Defiance	5	80%	100%	36%	2.2	1.4

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
North Texas	2.6	1.2	1.7	1.7	1.8	1.7
Tacoma Defiance	1.5	1.4	1.5	1.2	1.9	1.5

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
North Texas	1.7	2.6	1.7	1.7
Tacoma Defiance	1.5	1.4	1.5	1.9

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	6.45%	6.90%	9.09%	14.71%
16-30	6.45%	13.79%	15.15%	5.88%
31-45	22.58%	17.24%	15.15%	11.76%
46-60	19.35%	37.93%	15.15%	5.88%
61-75	16.13%	6.90%	12.12%	29.41%
76-90	25.81%	13.79%	21.21%	20.59%

Team Comparison

33%

Form

67%

39%

Attack

61%

41%

Defense

59%

61%

Poisson

39%

71%

H2H

29%

55%

Goals

45%

Total

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
North Texas	5-1	1-4	0-2	6-1	5 / 4	3 / 6
Tacoma Defiance	4-1	2-4	0-2	4-0	4 / 4	3 / 4

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
North Texas	3	1	2	6	1	5
Tacoma Defiance	5	3	2	6	3	3

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
North Texas	2	50.00%	2	50.00%	—	—
Tacoma Defiance	5	71.43%	2	28.57%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2025-05-26	Tacoma Defiance	2 - 3 FT	North Texas
2024-10-27	North Texas	4 - 1 FT	Tacoma Defiance
2024-04-15	North Texas	2 - 1 FT	Tacoma Defiance
2023-08-20	North Texas	2 - 2 FT	Tacoma Defiance
2023-07-10	Tacoma Defiance	3 - 0 FT	North Texas
2022-05-08	North Texas	1 - 1 FT	Tacoma Defiance

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.31	Dafabet
Draw	3.80	Pinnacle
Away win	2.80	BetVictor
Over 2.5	1.53	Bet365
Under 2.5	2.60	Unibet
BTTS Yes	1.44	William Hill
BTTS No	2.70	BetVictor

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+5'	Tacoma Defiance	D. Brown	Card	Yellow Card
90+3'	North Texas	C. Swann	subst	Out: M. Luccin
90+2'	North Texas	D. Kimbrough	Goal	Normal Goal
90'	North Texas	N. James	subst	Out: J. Gibson
84'	Tacoma Defiance	D. Robles	subst	Out: P. Hurtado Martinez
83'	Tacoma Defiance	L. Lucero	subst	Out: J. Lear
82'	North Texas	D. Baran	subst	Out: D. Kimbrough
73'	Tacoma Defiance	X. Gnaulati	subst	Out: S. Kitafuji
72'	North Texas	D. Baran	Goal	Normal Goal
71'	Tacoma Defiance	M. Shour	Card	Yellow Card
69'	North Texas	S. Starnes	Goal	Assist: C. Swann
65'	Tacoma Defiance	G. Sandnes	subst	Out: T. Sugitani
65'	Tacoma Defiance	C. Gaffney	subst	Out: O. Hassan
57'	Tacoma Defiance	D. Robles	Card	Yellow Card
50'	Tacoma Defiance	X. Gnaulati	Goal	Assist: C. Gaffney
43'	North Texas	L. Goncalves	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · MLS Next Pro 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
New England II	1	21	42	14	7	34	24	10	WWLWL
Columbus Crew II	2	21	39	14	7	37	33	4	LLWWW
New York RB II	3	22	35	11	11	43	37	6	WLLLL
Connecticut FC	4	21	34	12	9	40	37	3	LWWWW
New York City II	5	20	33	11	9	33	30	3	WWLLW
Philadelphia Union II	6	22	30	10	12	24	29	-5	WLLLW
Toronto II	7	21	28	9	12	35	40	-5	WLWLL
FC Cincinnati II	8	21	16	6	15	22	45	-23	LLWLL
Crown Legacy	1	22	48	17	5	54	30	24	WWWWW
Chattanooga	2	22	43	15	7	41	30	11	WWWLW
Orlando City II	3	22	35	12	10	42	41	1	LLLWW
Atlanta United II	4	21	34	10	11	44	34	10	LLWLW
Chicago Fire II	5	21	33	11	10	43	34	9	LWWLW
Huntsville City	6	22	29	9	13	35	42	-7	LLLWW
Carolina Core	7	23	26	8	15	32	40	-8	WWLWL
Inter Miami II	8	20	8	2	18	16	49	-33	LLWLL
Portland Timbers II	1	22	45	15	7	28	24	4	WWWWW
Ventura County	2	21	38	13	8	43	28	15	WWWLW
Los Angeles FC II	3	21	35	11	10	33	32	1	LWWLL
Tacoma Defiance	4	22	33	11	11	30	32	-2	LWWWW
The Town	5	20	31	10	10	39	25	14	WLLLL
Real Monarchs	6	22	26	10	12	31	42	-11	LLLLW
Vancouver Whitecaps II	7	22	19	7	15	28	49	-21	LWLLW
Austin II	1	21	49	16	5	43	18	25	WWLWL
Houston Dynamo FC II	2	20	45	16	4	45	19	26	WLWWW
St. Louis City II	3	22	35	12	10	34	33	1	WWLLL
Minnesota United II	4	22	30	10	12	30	35	-5	LLLWL
North Texas	5	20	29	9	11	33	30	3	WLLWL
Sporting KC II	6	21	19	6	15	27	53	-26	LWWLL
Colorado Rapids II	7	22	13	3	19	18	42	-24	LLLLW
Crown Legacy Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	1	22	48	17	5	54	30	24	WWWWW
Chattanooga Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	2	22	43	15	7	41	30	11	WWWLW
New England II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	3	21	42	14	7	34	24	10	WWLWL
Columbus Crew II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	4	21	39	14	7	37	33	4	LLWWW
New York RB II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	5	22	35	11	11	43	37	6	WLLLL
Orlando City II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	6	22	35	12	10	42	41	1	LLLWW
Atlanta United II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	7	21	34	10	11	44	34	10	LLWLW
Connecticut FC Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	8	21	34	12	9	40	37	3	LWWWW
New York City II	9	20	33	11	9	33	30	3	WWLLW
Chicago Fire II	10	21	33	11	10	43	34	9	LWWLW
Philadelphia Union II	11	22	30	10	12	24	29	-5	WLLLW
Huntsville City	12	22	29	9	13	35	42	-7	LLLWW
Toronto II	13	21	28	9	12	35	40	-5	WLWLL
Carolina Core	14	23	26	8	15	32	40	-8	WWLWL
FC Cincinnati II	15	21	16	6	15	22	45	-23	LLWLL
Inter Miami II	16	20	8	2	18	16	49	-33	LLWLL
Austin II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	1	21	49	16	5	43	18	25	WWLWL
Houston Dynamo FC II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	2	20	45	16	4	45	19	26	WLWWW
Portland Timbers II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	3	22	45	15	7	28	24	4	WWWWW
Ventura County Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	4	21	38	13	8	43	28	15	WWWLW
St. Louis City II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	5	22	35	12	10	34	33	1	WWLLL
Los Angeles FC II Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	6	21	35	11	10	33	32	1	LWWLL
Tacoma Defiance Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	7	22	33	11	11	30	32	-2	LWWWW
The Town Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	8	20	31	10	10	39	25	14	WLLLL
Minnesota United II	9	22	30	10	12	30	35	-5	LLLWL
North Texas	10	20	29	9	11	33	30	3	WLLWL
Real Monarchs	11	22	26	10	12	31	42	-11	LLLLW
Sporting KC II	12	21	19	6	15	27	53	-26	LWWLL
Vancouver Whitecaps II	13	22	19	7	15	28	49	-21	LWLLW
Colorado Rapids II	14	22	13	3	19	18	42	-24	LLLLW