Super Nova 1-1 Tukums: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Super Nova 1-1 Tukums: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Virsliga 🌍 Latvia

Mon, May 11 2026 · 17:00

Super Nova

1 - 1

Tukums

🏆 Virsliga

🌍 Latvia

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.50

League avg: 1.00

Both

3.40

League avg: 3.10

Away

1.90

League avg: 2.10

1X2 Probability

Home

16%

ELO-based: 39%

Draw

18%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

66%

ELO-based: 37%

Goal Probability

2.5+

64%

3.5+

46%

BTTS

88%

Best Score Tips

1 - 110%

1 - 29%

2 - 17%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Super Nova vs Tukums

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Super Nova vs Tukums.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Tukums
		0	1	2	3	4
Super Nova	0	3.3%	6.3%	6.0%	3.8%	1.8%
	1	5.0%	9.5%	9.0%	5.7%	2.7%
	2	3.8%	7.1%	6.8%	4.3%	2.0%
	3	1.9%	3.6%	3.4%	2.1%	1.0%
	4	0.7%	1.3%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%

ELO Overview

Home

1466+2

League

1531±0

Away

1458+28

ELO Verdict

Draw edge, Low confidence, high upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Super Nova	1466	1467	1463	1484	1478	+2
Tukums	1458	1475	1447	1568	1402	+28

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Super Nova	5	11	13	4	1	6	11	16	LLWLL
Tukums	7	11	11	2	5	4	23	17	DDLWW

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Super Nova	5	20%	13%	70%	0.6	1.4
Tukums	5	53%	65%	74%	3.0	1.2

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Super Nova	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.3	1.0	1.5
Tukums	2.4	1.5	2.1	1.3	2.0	1.5

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Super Nova	1.0	1.0	1.5	2.3
Tukums	2.1	1.5	1.5	2.0

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	16.67%	8.33%	13.33%	18.75%
16-30	16.67%	8.33%		25.00%
31-45	33.33%	25.00%	26.67%	18.75%
46-60	8.33%	16.67%	26.67%	12.50%
61-75		4.17%	6.67%	18.75%
76-90	25.00%	37.50%	26.67%	6.25%

Team Comparison

27%

Form

73%

17%

Attack

83%

46%

Defense

54%

35%

Poisson

65%

62%

H2H

38%

54%

Goals

46%

Total

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Super Nova		1-2	1-4	2-0	1 / 2	4 / 2
Tukums	6-1		1-2	2-1	6 / 3	2 / 3

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Super Nova	2	0	2	2	0	2
Tukums	1	1	0	0	0	0

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Super Nova	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Tukums	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-03-22	Tukums	1 - 2 FT	Super Nova
2025-09-28	Tukums	2 - 1 FT	Super Nova
2025-07-06	Super Nova	1 - 0 FT	Tukums
2025-05-16	Super Nova	1 - 1 FT	Tukums
2025-03-31	Tukums	2 - 2 FT	Super Nova
2023-09-17	Tukums	1 - 0 FT	Super Nova

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.88	Homepage market
Draw	3.50	Homepage market
Away win	2.05	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	1.80	Homepage market
BTTS market	2.00	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+2'	Tukums	D. Valmiers	Goal	Assist: B. Samoilovs
82'	Tukums	R. Reingolcs	subst	Out: D. Valmiers
80'	Super Nova	I. Sylla	Card	Yellow Card
79'	Super Nova	N. Pathe	subst	Out: G. Bombans
76'	Super Nova	N. Barkovskis	Card	Yellow Card
73'	Super Nova	R. Sitjakovs	Card	Yellow Card
73'	Tukums	S. Shibata	subst	Out: R. Baumanis
72'	Super Nova	Facu	subst	Out: I. Sylla
72'	Super Nova	A. Glaudans	subst	Out: K. Skadmanis
65'	Tukums	R. Deruzinskis	subst	Out: Leoni
65'	Tukums	M. Derkach	subst	Out: R. Melkis
64'	Super Nova	A. Grikovs	subst	Out: N. Barkovskis
54'	Tukums	R. Reingolcs	Card	Yellow Card
35'	Tukums	S. Shibata	Card	Yellow Card
29'	Super Nova	Bamba	Card	Yellow Card
18'	Super Nova	A. Glaudans	Goal	Assist: V. Lizunovs

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Rīgas FS Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	1	13	34	11	1	1	29	9	20	WWWWD
Riga Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	2	13	30	9	3	1	42	16	26	DWWWD
Auda Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	3	13	25	8	1	4	26	19	7	LLWWW
FK Liepaja	4	13	18	5	3	5	16	19	-3	WWLLD
Super Nova	5	13	17	5	2	6	15	18	-3	WDLLW
BFC Daugavpils	6	13	14	4	2	7	15	21	-6	LLLDL
Tukums	7	13	13	2	7	4	27	21	6	DDWWL
FS Jelgava	8	13	13	3	4	6	10	24	-14	DDWLW
Grobiņa Virsliga (Relegation)	9	13	12	2	6	5	9	21	-12	DDLDD
Ogre United Relegation - Nakotnes liga	10	13	3	0	3	10	11	32	-21	LLLLL