Aucas 3-0 Leones del Norte: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Aucas 3-0 Leones del Norte: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Liga Pro 🌍 Ecuador

Sat, Aug 8 2026 · 21:30

Aucas

3 - 0

Leones del Norte

🏆 Liga Pro

🌍 Ecuador

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.27

League avg: 1.10

Both

2.29

League avg: 2.10

Away

1.02

League avg: 1.00

1X2 Probability

Home

37%

ELO-based: 40%

Draw

30%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

33%

ELO-based: 36%

Goal Probability

2.5+

44%

3.5+

25%

BTTS

49%

Best Score Tips

1 - 113%

1 - 013%

0 - 110%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Aucas vs Leones del Norte

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Aucas vs Leones del Norte.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Leones del Norte
		0	1	2	3	4
Aucas	0	10.1%	10.3%	5.3%	1.8%	0.5%
	1	12.8%	13.1%	6.7%	2.3%	0.6%
	2	8.1%	8.3%	4.3%	1.5%	0.4%
	3	3.4%	3.5%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
	4	1.1%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1561+8

League

1530±0

Away

1539+8

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Low confidence, high upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Aucas	1561	1571	1522	1548	1530	+8
Leones del Norte	1539	1546	1503	1441	1567	+8

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Aucas	3	23	38	11	5	7	26	25	LWLLW
Leones del Norte	7	23	32	8	8	7	24	22	DWDWD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Aucas	5	40%	45%	18%	1.0	1.8
Leones del Norte	5	60%	45%	73%	1.0	0.6

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Aucas	1.3	1.0	1.1	1.3	0.9	1.1
Leones del Norte	1.3	0.8	1.0	0.8	1.2	1.0

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Aucas	1.1	1.3	1.1	1.3
Leones del Norte	1.0	0.8	1.0	1.2

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	8.33%	4.00%	14.81%	4.76%
16-30	12.50%	20.00%	18.52%	9.52%
31-45	29.17%	28.00%	11.11%	28.57%
46-60	12.50%	20.00%	11.11%	14.29%
61-75	20.83%	12.00%	14.81%	14.29%
76-90	16.67%	16.00%	29.63%	28.57%

Team Comparison

Form

Attack

25%

Defense

75%

52%

Poisson

48%

H2H

83%

Goals

17%

Total

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Aucas	3-1	0-2	1-4	3-0	3 / 2	4 / 3
Leones del Norte	3-0	1-3	0-2	3-0	3 / 3	2 / 3

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Aucas	10	3	7	6	3	3
Leones del Norte	8	4	4	6	2	4

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Aucas	2	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Leones del Norte	3	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-04-17	Leones del Norte	0 - 1 FT	Aucas
2022-06-12	Leones del Norte	1 - 4 FT	Aucas

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.84	Unibet
Draw	3.60	Betano
Away win	5.40	Betano
Over 2.5	2.34	Pinnacle
Under 2.5	1.65	10Bet
BTTS Yes	2.10	Bet365
BTTS No	1.75	William Hill

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	Aucas	Leones del Norte
expected_goals	—	—
Ball Possession	49%	51%
Total Shots	7	10
Shots on Goal	4	5
Shots off Goal	1	3
Blocked Shots	2	2
Shots insidebox	3	7
Shots outsidebox	4	3
Corner Kicks	4	6
Offsides	0	1
Fouls	12	5
Yellow Cards	1	2
Red Cards	—	—
Goalkeeper Saves	5	1
Total passes	465	465
Passes accurate	401	381
Passes %	86%	82%
goals_prevented	—	—

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
87'	Aucas	P. Guzman	Card	Yellow Card
85'	Leones del Norte	P. Madero	subst	Out: T. Coppo
80'	Aucas	R. Quinonez	subst	Out: B. Carabali
74'	Aucas	A. Mena	subst	Out: S. Tapiero
74'	Aucas	R. Bolanos	subst	Out: J. M. Andrade
67'	Leones del Norte	D. Pazmino	subst	Out: E. Pepinos
63'	Aucas	E. Preciado	subst	Out: M. Vera
58'	Leones del Norte	C. Solano	subst	Out: B. Kreiman
48'	Aucas	R. Bolanos	Goal	Assist: E. Preciado
46'	Leones del Norte	E. Griffa	subst	Out: T. Amilivia
46'	Aucas	A. Zova	subst	Out: M. Burdisso
46'	Leones del Norte	M. De La Cruz	subst	Out: C. Velez
45+1'	Leones del Norte	E. Griffa	Card	Yellow Card
31'	Aucas	R. Bolanos	Goal	Assist: E. Preciado
24'	Aucas	E. Preciado	Goal	Penalty
16'	Leones del Norte	N. Monserrat	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · Liga Pro 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Independiente del Valle Play-offs	1	24	61	20	1	3	58	22	36	WWWWW
Macara Play-offs	2	24	41	12	5	7	32	24	8	WWWWL
Aucas Play-offs	3	24	41	12	5	7	29	25	4	WWLLW
Universidad Catolica Play-offs	4	23	39	11	6	6	38	19	19	WDWWW
Barcelona SC Play-offs	5	24	35	9	8	7	25	20	5	LDLLW
LDU de Quito Play-offs	6	24	35	10	5	9	23	20	3	LWWDL
Leones del Norte	7	24	32	8	8	8	24	25	-1	LDWDW
Deportivo Cuenca	8	23	31	9	4	10	21	28	-7	LWLLD
Libertad	9	23	30	8	6	9	24	26	-2	WWWLW
Mushuc Runa SC	10	23	28	7	7	9	29	34	-5	WLDWL
Guayaquil City FC Relegation Playoffs	11	23	28	7	7	9	20	25	-5	LDDWD
Orense SC Relegation Playoffs	12	23	26	7	5	11	27	35	-8	LLWLL
Tecnico Universitario Relegation Playoffs	13	23	26	8	2	13	20	29	-9	LWLLL
Emelec Relegation Playoffs	14	23	25	7	7	9	19	28	-9	LLDLW
Delfin SC Relegation Playoffs	15	23	23	6	5	12	14	23	-9	LLLWW
Manta FC Relegation Playoffs	16	23	14	3	5	15	9	29	-20	LLDLL