Nautico Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Nautico Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Serie B 🌍 Brazil

Tue, Jun 9 2026 · 22:00

Nautico Recife

0 - 1

Fortaleza EC

🏆 Serie B

🌍 Brazil

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.15

League avg: 1.50

Both

1.73

League avg: 2.80

Away

0.58

League avg: 1.30

1X2 Probability

Home

51%

ELO-based: 38%

Draw

33%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

16%

ELO-based: 38%

Goal Probability

2.5+

39%

3.5+

21%

BTTS

40%

Best Score Tips

1 - 020%

0 - 018%

1 - 112%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Fortaleza EC
		0	1	2	3	4
Nautico Recife	0	17.7%	10.2%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%
	1	20.4%	11.8%	3.4%	0.7%	0.1%
	2	11.8%	6.8%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%
	3	4.5%	2.6%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
	4	1.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

ELO Overview

Home

1576+20

League

1540±0

Away

1573-11

ELO Verdict

Draw edge, Low confidence, high upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Nautico Recife	1576	1583	1500	1584	1593	+20
Fortaleza EC	1573	1573	1506	1495	1638	-11

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Nautico Recife	5	11	19	6	1	4	16	11	DWWWL
Fortaleza EC	7	11	18	5	3	3	14	11	WDLWL

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Nautico Recife	5	67%	92%	62%	2.4	1.0
Fortaleza EC	5	47%	62%	69%	1.6	0.8

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Nautico Recife	1.2	1.7	1.5	0.8	1.2	1.0
Fortaleza EC	2.4	0.3	1.3	0.8	1.2	1.0

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Nautico Recife	1.5	1.2	1.0	0.8
Fortaleza EC	1.3	0.3	1.0	1.2

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15		9.09%	16.67%	7.14%
16-30	13.33%	18.18%	8.33%	14.29%
31-45	6.67%	9.09%	25.00%	28.57%
46-60	20.00%	18.18%	8.33%	35.71%
61-75	26.67%	9.09%	16.67%	7.14%
76-90	33.33%	36.36%	25.00%	7.14%

Team Comparison

59%

Form

41%

Attack

44%

Defense

56%

82%

Poisson

18%

H2H

91%

25%

Goals

75%

47%

Total

54%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Nautico Recife	4-0	2-6	0-3	2-0	4 / 6	3 / 2
Fortaleza EC	4-1	0-1		4-0	4 / 1	2 / 4

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Nautico Recife	4	3	1	4	2	2
Fortaleza EC	5	2	3	5	1	4

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Nautico Recife	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Fortaleza EC	3	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2023-02-26	Fortaleza EC	2 - 1 FT	Nautico Recife
2022-03-26	Fortaleza EC	2 - 0 FT	Nautico Recife
2022-02-12	Nautico Recife	2 - 2 FT	Fortaleza EC
2020-03-14	Nautico Recife	0 - 3 FT	Fortaleza EC

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.30	Homepage market
Draw	3.00	Homepage market
Away win	3.25	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	1.60	Homepage market
BTTS market	1.91	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	Nautico Recife	Fortaleza EC
expected_goals	1.70	0.19
Ball Possession	73%	27%
Total Shots	27	4
Shots on Goal	9	1
Shots off Goal	12	2
Blocked Shots	6	1
Shots insidebox	14	3
Shots outsidebox	13	1
Corner Kicks	10	4
Offsides	2	6
Fouls	4	15
Yellow Cards	2	4
Red Cards	0	1
Goalkeeper Saves	1	9
Total passes	488	180
Passes accurate	450	122
Passes %	92%	68%
goals_prevented	1.61	1.61

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90'	Fortaleza EC	Lucas Sasha	subst	Out: Ryan
85'	Nautico Recife	Mateus Silva	Card	Yellow Card
80'	Fortaleza EC	Mauricio Junior	subst	Out: G. Fuentes
80'	Nautico Recife	Betao	subst	Out: Wanderson
80'	Nautico Recife	Wenderson	subst	Out: Rosa
76'	Fortaleza EC	Mauricio Junior	Card	Yellow Card
67'	Fortaleza EC	Kayke	Card	Yellow Card
65'	Nautico Recife	Derek	subst	Out: Juninho
64'	Nautico Recife	Leonai Souza	subst	Out: Ramon
62'	Fortaleza EC	Luiz Fernando	subst	Out: Kayke
60'	Nautico Recife	Igor Fernandes	subst	Out: Yuri
52'	Fortaleza EC	Rodriguinho	Card	Red Card
46'	Fortaleza EC	Vitinho	subst	Out: T. Pochettino
46'	Fortaleza EC	J. B. Miritello	subst	Out: Lucas Crispim
44'	Fortaleza EC	Mateus Silva	Goal	Own Goal
39'	Fortaleza EC	Luiz Fernando	Card	Yellow Card
39'	Nautico Recife	Leonai Souza	Card	Yellow Card
36'	Fortaleza EC	E. Britez	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · Serie B 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Vila Nova Promotion	1	12	25	7	4	1	18	11	7	WWWWL
São Bernardo Promotion	2	12	24	7	3	2	20	10	10	WDWDW
Sport Recife Promotion Playoffs	3	11	22	6	4	1	15	7	8	WWLWW
Criciuma Promotion Playoffs	4	12	20	5	5	2	14	10	4	WWDDD
Nautico Recife Promotion Playoffs	5	11	19	6	1	4	16	11	5	LWWWD
Operario-PR Promotion Playoffs	6	12	19	5	4	3	14	15	-1	WWDLL
Fortaleza EC	7	11	18	5	3	3	14	11	3	LWLDW
Goias	8	11	17	5	2	4	12	13	-1	DWWWL
Novorizontino	9	11	17	4	5	2	14	11	3	DWDWD
Athletic Club	10	11	17	4	5	2	13	11	2	WWDDD
Juventude	11	12	16	4	4	4	10	8	2	LWLDD
Atletico Goianiense	12	12	16	4	4	4	12	12	0	WDLDW
CRB	13	12	14	4	2	6	19	20	-1	LLWWW
Ceara	14	11	13	3	4	4	12	13	-1	LLWLL
Cuiaba	15	11	13	2	7	2	6	5	1	WLDDD
Botafogo SP	16	12	10	2	4	6	11	12	-1	LDLLL
Avai Relegation	17	11	10	2	4	5	11	15	-4	LLLDD
Londrina Relegation	18	12	8	2	2	8	12	20	-8	LLLWL
Ponte Preta Relegation	19	11	8	2	2	7	9	20	-11	DLLLL
America Mineiro Relegation	20	12	3	0	3	9	7	24	-17	LLLDL