Sun, May 10 2026 • 19:00 •
Estadio General San Martin
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.29)
0.41 (league 0.74)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.8% | 37.4% | 15.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
26.4%
1 - 0
24.4%
2 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo Rincon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Huracan Las Heras | 0 | 26.4% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Huracan Las Heras carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Huracan Las Heras +19.5, Deportivo Rincon +3.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Huracan Las Heras
vs
Deportivo Rincon
Elo gapHuracan Las Heras +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2983.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2983.1
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1491.3 | 1491.8 |
| Form Elo | 1512.4 | 1494 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.2 | 1437.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1434.2 | 1477.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1523 | 1516.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +19.5 | +3.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Huracan Las Heras last-5 Elo change: +19.5; Deportivo Rincon last-5 Elo change: +3.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 40% | 50% |
| Defense | 60% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 33% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 67% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 17% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
Huracan Las HerasDLDDWW
Deportivo RinconDWDLLW
League goals
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 50% | 83% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 17% | 33% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 1-2 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Huracan Las Heras | Deportivo Rincon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 55.3% | 44.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.75 @ Unibet
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away5.75 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.75 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.62 @ Bet365
No1.49 @ Unibet
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League standings
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