TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow
FT
Sun, May 10 2026 Β· 15:00
FT
πŸ† Bundesliga
🌍 Austria
🏟️ TBA
Pre-Match Predictions
Expected Goals
Home
1.10
League avg: 1.20
Both
2.80
League avg: 2.70
Away
1.70
League avg: 1.50
1X2 Probability
Home
13%
ELO-based: 34%
Draw
18%
ELO-based: 24%
Away
69%
ELO-based: 42%
Goal Probability
2.5+
53%
3.5+
38%
BTTS
70%
Best Score Tips
1 - 111%
0 - 110%
1 - 210%
Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.
FT Score Probability Grid
Sturm Graz
01234
TSV Hartberg 0 6.1% 10.3% 8.8% 5.0% 2.1%
1 6.7% 11.4% 9.7% 5.5% 2.3%
2 3.7% 6.3% 5.3% 3.0% 1.3%
3 1.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
ELO Overview
Home
1577-12
League
1556Β±0
Away
1611+21
ELO Verdict
Away edge, Low confidence, high upset risk
ELOOverallFormH/AAttackDefenseLast 5 +-
TSV Hartberg15771562148015711586-12
Sturm Graz16111634154115941585+21
League Snapshot
TeamPosMPPtsWDLGFGAForm
TSV Hartberg6303991293535DDWLL
Sturm Graz1305014884533DDDDD
Recent Team Form
TeamPlayedFormAttackDefenseGF avgGA avg
TSV Hartberg 5 33% 31% 50% 1.0 1.6
Sturm Graz 5 33% 25% 75% 0.8 0.8
Goal Trends
TeamGF HGF AGF TotGA HGA AGA Tot
TSV Hartberg 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.2
Sturm Graz 1.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1
Goals Trends, home + away avg.
TeamsGFGF H/AGAGA H/A
TSV Hartberg 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4
Sturm Graz 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.1
Goal Minutes
MinHome ForAway ForHome AgainstAway Against
0-15 13.51% 20.45% 15.15% 8.82%
16-30 18.92% 2.27% 6.06% 23.53%
31-45 13.51% 20.45% 12.12% 8.82%
46-60 16.22% 18.18% 15.15% 14.71%
61-75 18.92% 15.91% 18.18% 26.47%
76-90 18.92% 22.73% 33.33% 17.65%
Team Comparison
5%
Form
5%
56%
Attack
44%
33%
Defense
67%
27%
Poisson
73%
7%
H2H
93%
14%
Goals
86%
31%
Total
69%
Biggest Results
TeamWin HWin ALoss HLoss AGF H/AGA H/A
TSV Hartberg 2-0 1-3 1-5 4-2 2 / 3 5 / 4
Sturm Graz 2-0 2-5 1-3 3-1 2 / 5 3 / 3
Clean sheets & failed to score
TeamCSCS HCS AFTSFTS HFTS A
TSV Hartberg 10 3 7 10 4 6
Sturm Graz 11 5 6 3 2 1
Penalties
TeamScoredScored %MissedMissed %WonCommitted
TSV Hartberg 3 100.00% 0 0% β€” β€”
Sturm Graz 8 100.00% 0 0% β€” β€”
Recent H2H
DateHomeScoreAway
2026-04-12 Sturm Graz 0 - 0 FT TSV Hartberg
2025-11-30 TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 FT Sturm Graz
2025-09-28 Sturm Graz 1 - 0 FT TSV Hartberg
2024-11-09 TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 FT Sturm Graz
2024-08-11 Sturm Graz 2 - 0 FT TSV Hartberg
2024-05-05 Sturm Graz 1 - 1 FT TSV Hartberg
Best Odds Snapshot
MarketBest oddBookmaker
Home win 3.90 Homepage market
Draw 3.50 Homepage market
Away win 1.90 Homepage market
2.5 goals market 1.90 Homepage market
BTTS market 2.05 Homepage market
Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.
Match Stats
StatTSV HartbergSturm Graz
expected_goals 1.30 1.37
Ball Possession 55% 45%
Total Shots 13 26
Shots on Goal 6 8
Shots off Goal 6 10
Blocked Shots 1 8
Shots insidebox 3 13
Shots outsidebox 10 13
Corner Kicks 2 7
Offsides 1 3
Fouls 8 9
Yellow Cards 2 2
Red Cards β€” β€”
Goalkeeper Saves 5 4
Total passes 420 341
Passes accurate 337 266
Passes % 80% 78%
goals_prevented -0.53 -0.53
Match Events
MinTeamPlayerTypeDetail
85' TSV Hartberg P. Komposch Card Yellow Card
85' Sturm Graz O. Kiteishvili subst Out: G. Mamageishvili
85' Sturm Graz R. Fosso subst Out: S. Hierlander
80' Sturm Graz L. Weinhandl Goal Assist: J. Hodl
79' TSV Hartberg L. Fridrikas subst Out: J. Karner
71' Sturm Graz L. Weinhandl Card Yellow Card
71' TSV Hartberg T. Kainz subst Out: L. Spendlhofer
71' TSV Hartberg M. Hoffmann subst Out: D. Korherr
71' TSV Hartberg K. Schopp subst Out: P. Komposch
63' Sturm Graz S. Jatta subst Out: M. Malone
59' Sturm Graz J. Gorenc Stankovic subst Out: P. Koller
59' Sturm Graz A. Kayombo subst Out: L. Weinhandl
56' TSV Hartberg L. Fridrikas Goal Penalty
51' Sturm Graz J. Gorenc Stankovic Card Yellow Card
46' TSV Hartberg M. Fillafer subst Out: D. Kovacevic
26' TSV Hartberg K. Schopp Card Yellow Card
25' Sturm Graz O. Kiteishvili Goal Assist: E. Karic
14' Sturm Graz B. Markus Goal Own Goal
9' TSV Hartberg L. Pazourek Goal Assist: T. Kainz
2' Sturm Graz A. Vallci Goal Assist: J. Gazibegovic
League Standings
Local standings cache Β· Bundesliga 2025
TeamPosMPPtsWDLGFGAGDForm
Lask Linz Champions League Qualification 1 32 39 17 7 8 56 42 14 WWWWD
Sturm Graz Champions League Qualification 2 32 37 16 8 8 51 35 16 WWDDD
Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League Qualification 3 32 29 13 9 10 56 41 15 LLDLW
Austria Vienna Conference League Qualification 4 32 29 14 5 13 45 50 -5 LWWDL
Rapid Vienna Qualification Playoffs 5 32 27 12 8 12 36 41 -5 LLLWL
TSV Hartberg 6 32 25 10 12 10 40 40 0 WLLLW
Sturm Graz Championship round 1 22 38 12 2 8 33 26 7 WWDDD
Red Bull Salzburg Championship round 2 22 37 10 7 5 42 26 16 LLDLW
Lask Linz Championship round 3 22 37 11 4 7 32 30 2 WWWWD
Austria Vienna Championship round 4 22 36 11 3 8 34 30 4 LWWDL
Rapid Vienna Championship round 5 22 33 9 6 7 26 25 1 LLLWL
TSV Hartberg Championship round 6 22 33 8 9 5 29 24 5 WLLLW
WSG Wattens Relegation Round 7 22 31 8 7 7 31 30 1 LDLWD
SCR Altach Relegation Round 8 22 29 7 8 7 22 23 -1 WDLLD
Ried Relegation Round 9 22 28 8 4 10 26 30 -4 LLWLW
Wolfsberger AC Relegation Round 10 22 26 7 5 10 31 32 -1 WWWWL
Grazer AK Relegation Round 11 22 20 4 8 10 22 36 -14 WDWLL
FC BW Linz Relegation Round 12 22 15 4 3 15 20 36 -16 LDLWW
Ried Qualification Playoffs 1 32 28 12 6 14 38 42 -4 LLWLW
Wolfsberger AC Qualification Playoffs 2 32 28 11 8 13 41 42 -1 WWWWL
SCR Altach 3 32 27 10 12 10 36 39 -3 WDLLD
Grazer AK 4 32 27 9 10 13 42 45 -3 WDWLL
WSG Wattens 5 32 24 10 10 12 40 52 -12 LDLWD
FC BW Linz Relegation 6 32 21 8 5 19 37 49 -12 LDLWW