Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.28)
0.70 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.7% | 25.2% | 16.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.2%
2 - 0
12.7%
1 - 1
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Tocantinópolis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tuna Luso | 0 | 10.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.7% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Tuna Luso +4.5, Tocantinópolis -18.4.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Tuna Luso
vs
Tocantinópolis
Elo gapTuna Luso +8
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo3070.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3070.2
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.4 | 1548.8 |
| Form Elo | 1525.1 | 1520.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1569.2 | 1528.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1500.5 | 1472.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1529.8 | 1578.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.5 | -18.4 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Tuna Luso last-5 Elo change: +4.5; Tocantinópolis last-5 Elo change: -18.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 67% | 44% |
| Defense | 33% | 11% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 50% | 67% | 60% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 20% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
Tuna LusoDDWLD
TocantinópolisDLLDD
League goals
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 60% | 60% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 0% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tuna Luso | Tocantinópolis |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 61.2% | 38.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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