Kilmarnock 3-1 Dundee: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Kilmarnock 3-1 Dundee: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Premiership 🌍 Scotland

Tue, May 12 2026 · 18:45

Kilmarnock

3 - 1

Dundee

🏆 Premiership

🌍 Scotland

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.55

League avg: 1.20

Both

2.60

League avg: 2.30

Away

1.05

League avg: 1.10

1X2 Probability

Home

55%

ELO-based: 39%

Draw

26%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

19%

ELO-based: 37%

Goal Probability

2.5+

55%

3.5+

39%

BTTS

65%

Best Score Tips

1 - 112%

1 - 012%

2 - 19%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Kilmarnock vs Dundee

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Kilmarnock vs Dundee.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Dundee
		0	1	2	3	4
Kilmarnock	0	7.4%	7.8%	4.1%	1.4%	0.4%
	1	11.5%	12.1%	6.3%	2.2%	0.6%
	2	8.9%	9.4%	4.9%	1.7%	0.5%
	3	4.6%	4.8%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%
	4	1.8%	1.9%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1489+32

League

1552±0

Away

1478±0

ELO Verdict

Draw edge, Low confidence, high upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Kilmarnock	1489	1513	1513	1514	1419	+32
Dundee	1478	1478	1454	1490	1443	±0

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Kilmarnock	4	36	34	8	10	18	43	66	LDLWW
Dundee	3	36	39	10	9	17	38	56	LDLWW

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Kilmarnock	5	47%	50%	63%	1.6	1.2
Dundee	5	47%	44%	56%	1.4	1.4

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Kilmarnock	1.4	1.0	1.2	1.5	2.2	1.8
Dundee	1.6	0.6	1.1	1.4	1.7	1.6

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Kilmarnock	1.2	1.4	1.8	1.5
Dundee	1.1	0.6	1.6	1.7

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	9.30%	16.22%	15.15%	17.54%
16-30	20.93%	10.81%	15.15%	17.54%
31-45	25.58%	21.62%	9.09%	15.79%
46-60	16.28%	16.22%	21.21%	8.77%
61-75	9.30%	13.51%	16.67%	10.53%
76-90	18.60%	21.62%	22.73%	29.82%

Team Comparison

Form

53%

Attack

47%

54%

Defense

46%

67%

Poisson

33%

38%

H2H

62%

47%

Goals

53%

52%

Total

49%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Kilmarnock	3-0	0-3	0-3	5-1	4 / 3	3 / 5
Dundee	3-0	2-3	0-3	4-0	3 / 3	3 / 4

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Kilmarnock	9	6	3	10	5	5
Dundee	7	4	3	15	3	12

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Kilmarnock	0	0%	0	0%	—	—
Dundee	4	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-04-11	Kilmarnock	2 - 2 FT	Dundee
2026-01-17	Kilmarnock	1 - 2 FT	Dundee
2025-12-30	Dundee	2 - 1 FT	Kilmarnock
2025-08-23	Kilmarnock	0 - 0 FT	Dundee
2025-05-10	Kilmarnock	3 - 2 FT	Dundee
2024-11-30	Kilmarnock	1 - 1 FT	Dundee

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.67	Homepage market
Draw	4.10	Homepage market
Away win	4.75	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	2.20	Homepage market
BTTS market	2.10	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	Kilmarnock	Dundee
expected_goals	3.38	0.43
Ball Possession	52%	48%
Total Shots	19	7
Shots on Goal	8	2
Shots off Goal	6	3
Blocked Shots	5	2
Shots insidebox	12	6
Shots outsidebox	7	1
Corner Kicks	6	2
Offsides	1	0
Fouls	13	18
Yellow Cards	4	3
Red Cards	—	—
Goalkeeper Saves	2	5
Total passes	443	420
Passes accurate	359	322
Passes %	81%	77%
goals_prevented	0.83	0.83

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+4'	Kilmarnock	J. Hugill	Goal	Normal Goal
90+4'	Kilmarnock	J. Hugill	Card	Yellow Card
90+2'	Kilmarnock	G. Kiltie	subst	Out: R. McKenzie
89'	Kilmarnock	L. Mayo	Card	Yellow Card
87'	Kilmarnock	M. Watkins	subst	Out: D. Watson
87'	Kilmarnock	M. Schjonning-Larsen	subst	Out: L. Mayo
86'	Dundee	J. Cotterill	subst	Out: T. Yogane
85'	Kilmarnock	J. Hugill	Goal	Penalty
84'	Dundee	K. O'Hara	Card	Yellow Card
83'	Dundee	J. Bevan	Card	Yellow Card
78'	Dundee	B. Halliday	subst	Out: C. Oosenbrugh
77'	Dundee	T. Lowery	Goal	Own Goal
68'	Dundee	S. Wright	subst	Out: C. Reilly
68'	Dundee	A. Hay	subst	Out: J. Westley
67'	Dundee	C. Robertson	subst	Out: J. Bevan
62'	Kilmarnock	T. Lowery	Goal	Assist: M. Schjonning-Larsen
58'	Kilmarnock	B. Anderson	subst	Out: M. Watkins
38'	Kilmarnock	R. Deas	Card	Yellow Card
35'	Kilmarnock	B. Anderson	Card	Yellow Card
22'	Kilmarnock	F. Curtis	Var	Goal Disallowed - offside
18'	Dundee	F. Robertson	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · Premiership 2025

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Heart Of Midlothian Championship round	1	33	70	21	7	5	58	28	30	LWDWW
Rangers Championship round	2	33	69	19	12	2	66	31	35	WLLLL
Celtic Championship round	3	33	67	21	4	8	59	35	24	WWWWW
Motherwell Championship round	4	33	54	14	12	7	52	29	23	WLDLW
Hibernian Championship round	5	33	51	13	12	8	51	37	14	LWWLL
Falkirk Championship round	6	33	46	13	7	13	45	48	-3	LLLWL
Dundee Utd Relegation Round	7	33	40	9	13	11	45	54	-9	DLLWW
Aberdeen Relegation Round	8	33	33	9	6	18	33	48	-15	LWDWW
Dundee Relegation Round	9	33	33	8	9	16	34	53	-19	LWWLD
ST Mirren Relegation Round	10	33	30	7	9	17	27	48	-21	WLLLL
Kilmarnock Relegation Round	11	33	28	6	10	17	37	65	-28	WWWLD
Livingston Relegation Round	12	33	16	1	13	19	35	66	-31	DLDWL
Celtic Champions League Qualification	1	38	82	26	4	8	73	41	32	WWWWW
Heart Of Midlothian Champions League Qualification	2	38	80	24	8	6	67	34	33	LWDWW
Rangers Conference League Qualification	3	38	72	20	12	6	76	43	33	WLLLL
Motherwell Conference League Qualification	4	38	61	16	13	9	59	36	23	WLDLW
Hibernian	5	38	57	15	12	11	58	44	14	LWWLL
Falkirk	6	38	49	14	7	17	50	62	-12	LLLWL
Dundee Utd	1	37	44	10	14	13	48	59	-11	DLLWW
Aberdeen	2	37	40	11	7	19	38	52	-14	LWDWW
Dundee	3	37	39	10	9	18	39	59	-20	LWWLD
Kilmarnock	4	37	37	9	10	18	46	67	-21	WWWLD
ST Mirren Relegation Playoffs	5	37	33	8	9	20	29	54	-25	WLLLL
Livingston Relegation	6	37	21	2	15	20	39	71	-32	DLDWL