Wed, May 13 2026 • 16:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.43 (league 0.85)
0.31 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3% | 26.4% | 8.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
25.0%
2 - 0
17.8%
0 - 0
17.6%
Score & goals probability table
| ASKO | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Diarra | 0 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 17.8% | 5.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Diarra carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 55 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Diarra +2.8, ASKO +1.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Diarra
vs
ASKO
Elo gapDiarra +55
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3012.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3012.5
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1516.4 | 1496.1 |
| Form Elo | 1531.4 | 1498 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1476.7 | 1492.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1408.7 | 1395.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1604.9 | 1606.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.8 | +1.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Diarra last-5 Elo change: +2.8; ASKO last-5 Elo change: +1.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 20% |
| Attack | 50% | 30% |
| Defense | 50% | 10% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
52%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| Wins | 67% | 50% | 58% | 56% | 10% | 32% |
| Draws | 11% | 30% | 21% | 11% | 40% | 26% |
| Loses | 22% | 20% | 21% | 33% | 50% | 42% |
DiarraWWWLWDDLWWDDWWWLLWW
ASKOWDLWWDWLLDDWLDLWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 12 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 4 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Diarra | ASKO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 42% | 68% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 21% | 32% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Diarra | ASKO |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 63.7% | 36.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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