Sun, May 10 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.95 (league 1.36)
0.97 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5% | 13.3% | 9.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
8.6%
3 - 0
8.5%
2 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Votoraty | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guarulhos | 0 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 6.3% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Guarulhos carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 29 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Guarulhos -12.0, Votoraty -26.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Guarulhos
vs
Votoraty
Elo gapGuarulhos +29
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2941.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2941.5
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1467.8 | 1473.7 |
| Form Elo | 1442.7 | 1429.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1480.1 | 1493.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1479.9 | 1479.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1450.1 | 1489.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.0 | -26.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Guarulhos last-5 Elo change: -12.0; Votoraty last-5 Elo change: -26.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 33% | 11% |
| Attack | 17% | 17% |
| Defense | 50% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 67% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
GuarulhosWLL
VotoratyDLL
League goals
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guarulhos | Votoraty | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 33% | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 67% | 0% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guarulhos | Votoraty |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 59.8% | 40.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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