Expected Goals
2.15 (league 1.11)
0.50 (league 0.73)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.6% | 17.0% | 7.2% |
best score tips
2 - 0
16.4%
1 - 0
15.3%
3 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| ES Sahel | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| CS Sfaxien | 0 | 7.1% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.7% | 5.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
CS Sfaxien carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 144 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: CS Sfaxien +20.3, ES Sahel -28.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
CS Sfaxien
vs
ES Sahel
Elo gapCS Sfaxien +144
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3222
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3222
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1665.6 | 1556.4 |
| Form Elo | 1689 | 1553.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1555.6 | 1521.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1557.9 | 1515.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1742 | 1600.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.3 | -28.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. CS Sfaxien last-5 Elo change: +20.3; ES Sahel last-5 Elo change: -28.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 67% |
| Defense | 83% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
57%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
57%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 71% | 47% | 59% | 53% | 21% | 38% |
| Draws | 14% | 40% | 28% | 20% | 36% | 28% |
| Loses | 14% | 13% | 14% | 27% | 43% | 34% |
CS SfaxienLDLWDWDDWWDLWWWWWWLDWWWWDWDWW
ES SahelLLDWDLWDLLWWWDLWLDDWWWDDLWLLW
League goals
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 16 | 40 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 6 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 19 | 27 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 31% | 69% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 10% | 21% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 0% | 3% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 8 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 8 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 89% | 11% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 72.8% | 27.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…