Al Najaf 1-4 Erbil: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Al Najaf 1-4 Erbil: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Iraqi League 🌍 Iraq

Mon, May 11 2026 · 14:30

Al Najaf

1 - 4

Erbil

🏆 Iraqi League

🌍 Iraq

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

0.70

League avg: 0.70

Both

2.30

League avg: 2.20

Away

1.60

League avg: 1.50

1X2 Probability

Home

ELO-based: 15%

Draw

14%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

81%

ELO-based: 61%

Goal Probability

2.5+

47%

3.5+

34%

BTTS

65%

Best Score Tips

0 - 116%

0 - 213%

1 - 111%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Al Najaf vs Erbil

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Al Najaf vs Erbil.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Erbil
		0	1	2	3	4
Al Najaf	0	10.0%	16.0%	12.8%	6.8%	2.7%
	1	7.0%	11.2%	9.0%	4.8%	1.9%
	2	2.5%	3.9%	3.1%	1.7%	0.7%
	3	0.6%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%
	4	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

ELO Overview

Home

1352+8

League

1511±0

Away

1601+5

ELO Verdict

Away edge, High confidence, low upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Al Najaf	1352	1352	1417	1367	1397	+8
Erbil	1601	1607	1564	1539	1583	+5

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Al Najaf	19	31	16	4	4	23	23	55	LLWLD
Erbil	3	33	68	19	11	3	49	26	WDWWD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Al Najaf	5	27%	42%	25%	1.0	1.8
Erbil	5	73%	75%	58%	1.8	1.0

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Al Najaf	0.8	0.7	0.7	1.8	1.8	1.8
Erbil	1.6	1.4	1.5	0.9	0.6	0.8

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Al Najaf	0.7	0.8	1.8	1.8
Erbil	1.5	1.4	0.8	0.6

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	12.50%	6.00%	9.26%	23.08%
16-30	8.33%	12.00%	14.81%	3.85%
31-45	20.83%	20.00%	14.81%	7.69%
46-60	8.33%	18.00%	16.67%	3.85%
61-75	12.50%	18.00%	22.22%	30.77%
76-90	37.50%	24.00%	22.22%	30.77%

Team Comparison

27%

Form

73%

36%

Attack

64%

36%

Defense

64%

15%

Poisson

85%

25%

H2H

75%

42%

Goals

58%

Total

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Al Najaf	2-1	1-2	0-3	4-2	2 / 2	4 / 4
Erbil	3-1	1-3	0-2	1-0	3 / 3	2 / 2

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Al Najaf	3	2	1	13	6	7
Erbil	14	6	8	7	3	4

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Al Najaf	4	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Erbil	8	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2025-09-15	Erbil	3 - 2 FT	Al Najaf
2025-02-19	Al Najaf	1 - 2 FT	Erbil
2024-10-30	Erbil	0 - 0 FT	Al Najaf
2024-06-26	Erbil	1 - 1 FT	Al Najaf
2024-02-22	Al Najaf	1 - 1 FT	Erbil
2023-07-16	Erbil	1 - 0 FT	Al Najaf

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	5.25	Homepage market
Draw	3.75	Homepage market
Away win	1.50	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	1.85	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
68'	Erbil	S. Temirov	Goal	Normal Goal
39'	Erbil	A. S. Omar	Goal	Normal Goal
23'	Al Najaf	A. Raheem wali Kenani	Goal	Penalty
12'	Erbil	S. Temirov	Goal	Penalty
6'	Erbil	M. Cabrera	Goal	Normal Goal

League Standings

Local standings cache · Iraqi League 2025

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Al Quwa Al Jawiya Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)	1	35	80	24	8	3	55	25	30	WLWWD
Al Shorta	2	35	76	23	7	5	67	30	37	WWWWD
Erbil	3	35	70	20	10	5	52	30	22	LWDWW
Al Zawra'a	4	35	66	17	15	3	49	28	21	DWWDD
Al Talaba	5	35	62	18	8	9	50	35	15	LDLWL
Al-Karma	6	35	58	15	13	7	48	25	23	DWDLD
Al Karkh	7	35	56	15	11	9	45	36	9	DWWLW
Zakho	8	34	52	14	10	10	43	36	7	DLLWD
Newroz	9	35	50	15	5	15	44	43	1	WLLWD
Duhok	10	35	49	13	10	12	42	41	1	DWWDW
Diyala	11	35	46	12	10	13	38	37	1	LWDLL
Mosul	12	35	43	10	13	12	42	47	-5	DDLDW
Naft	13	35	41	9	14	12	29	32	-3	DLDLD
Gharraf	14	35	40	10	10	15	35	38	-3	DLDDL
Al Kahrabaa	15	34	34	10	4	20	40	50	-10	WWDL
Al Minaa Basra	16	34	34	8	10	16	34	44	-10	DLDLW
Naft Maysan	17	34	34	8	10	16	39	52	-13	DWLLD
Baghdad Stars League (Relegation)	18	35	34	9	7	19	41	61	-20	LLDDD
Al Najaf Relegation	19	33	17	4	5	24	25	60	-35	DLDL
Al-Qasim Relegation	20	35	6	0	6	29	18	86	-68	DLDDD