Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Championship 🌍 England

Tue, May 12 2026 · 19:00

AET

Southampton

2 - 1

Middlesbrough

🏆 Championship

🌍 England

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.50

League avg: 1.70

Both

2.75

League avg: 3.20

Away

1.25

League avg: 1.50

1X2 Probability

Home

47%

ELO-based: 48%

Draw

25%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

28%

ELO-based: 28%

Goal Probability

2.5+

55%

3.5+

39%

BTTS

72%

Best Score Tips

1 - 112%

1 - 010%

2 - 19%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Southampton vs Middlesbrough

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Southampton vs Middlesbrough.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Middlesbrough
		0	1	2	3	4
Southampton	0	6.4%	8.0%	5.0%	2.1%	0.7%
	1	9.6%	12.0%	7.5%	3.1%	1.0%
	2	7.2%	9.0%	5.6%	2.3%	0.7%
	3	3.6%	4.5%	2.8%	1.2%	0.4%
	4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1639+6

League

1504±0

Away

1544+9

ELO Verdict

Home edge, High confidence, low upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Southampton	1639	1660	1537	1649	1555	+6
Middlesbrough	1544	1539	1516	1555	1566	+9

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Southampton	4	47	81	22	15	10	82	56	WDDWD
Middlesbrough	5	47	81	22	15	10	72	47	DWWDD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Southampton	5	60%	100%	25%	1.8	1.2
Middlesbrough	5	60%	100%	38%	2.0	1.0

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Southampton	1.7	1.8	1.7	0.8	1.5	1.2
Middlesbrough	1.4	1.7	1.5	0.8	1.3	1.0

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Southampton	1.7	1.7	1.2	0.8
Middlesbrough	1.5	1.7	1.0	1.3

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	16.87%	11.43%	5.45%	14.29%
16-30	20.48%	14.29%	14.55%	20.41%
31-45	7.23%	21.43%	16.36%	12.24%
46-60	20.48%	17.14%	18.18%	14.29%
61-75	14.46%	18.57%	20.00%	16.33%
76-90	20.48%	17.14%	25.45%	22.45%

Team Comparison

Form

47%

Attack

53%

45%

Defense

55%

57%

Poisson

43%

25%

H2H

75%

27%

Goals

73%

42%

Total

58%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Southampton	5-0	1-5	0-2	4-0	5 / 5	2 / 4
Middlesbrough	5-1	0-4	2-4	3-0	5 / 4	4 / 3

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Southampton	12	10	2	6	4	2
Middlesbrough	14	10	4	12	7	5

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Southampton	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Middlesbrough	4	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-05-09	Middlesbrough	0 - 0 FT	Southampton
2026-01-04	Middlesbrough	4 - 0 FT	Southampton
2025-09-27	Southampton	1 - 1 FT	Middlesbrough
2024-03-29	Southampton	1 - 1 FT	Middlesbrough
2023-09-23	Middlesbrough	2 - 1 FT	Southampton
2017-05-13	Middlesbrough	1 - 2 FT	Southampton

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.38	Homepage market
Draw	3.40	Homepage market
Away win	2.88	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	1.73	Homepage market
BTTS market	1.57	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	Southampton	Middlesbrough
expected_goals	1.99	0.88
Ball Possession	60%	40%
Total Shots	20	15
Shots on Goal	7	3
Shots off Goal	6	6
Blocked Shots	7	6
Shots insidebox	13	10
Shots outsidebox	7	5
Corner Kicks	11	5
Offsides	0	1
Fouls	14	19
Yellow Cards	3	4
Red Cards	—	—
Goalkeeper Saves	2	4
Total passes	586	396
Passes accurate	488	309
Passes %	83%	78%
goals_prevented	-0.06	-0.06

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
120+6'	Southampton	C. Larin	Card	Yellow Card
120+3'	Southampton	D. Peretz	Card	Yellow Card
119'	Southampton	C. Jander	subst	Out: C. Bragg
119'	Southampton	S. Edozie	subst	Out: Welington
119'	Middlesbrough	L. Ayling	subst	Out: S. Hansen
116'	Southampton	S. Charles	Goal	Assist: T. Harwood-Bellis
105'	Middlesbrough	R. McGree	subst	Out: J. Sarmiento
92'	Middlesbrough	C. Brittain	Card	Yellow Card
85'	Southampton	L. Scienza	subst	Out: S. Edozie
84'	Southampton	R. Stewart	subst	Out: C. Larin
83'	Middlesbrough	D. Strelec	subst	Out: L. Castledine
78'	Middlesbrough	A. Malanda	Card	Yellow Card
73'	Middlesbrough	T. Conway	subst	Out: A. Browne
66'	Southampton	K. Matsuki	subst	Out: F. Downes
56'	Southampton	F. Azaz	Card	Yellow Card
45+1'	Southampton	R. Stewart	Goal	Normal Goal
38'	Middlesbrough	L. Ayling	Card	Yellow Card
37'	Southampton	N. Wood	Card	Yellow Card
13'	Middlesbrough	R. McGree	Card	Yellow Card
5'	Middlesbrough	R. McGree	Goal	Assist: C. Brittain

League Standings

Local standings cache · Championship 2025

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Coventry Promotion	1	46	95	28	11	7	97	45	52	WWWDD
Ipswich Promotion	2	46	84	23	15	8	80	47	33	WDDWD
Millwall Promotion Playoffs	3	46	83	24	11	11	64	49	15	LDWDW
Southampton Promotion Playoffs	4	46	80	22	14	10	82	56	26	WDWDD
Middlesbrough Promotion Playoffs	5	46	80	22	14	10	72	47	25	LDDWW
Hull City Promotion Playoffs	6	46	73	21	10	15	70	66	4	WDWLD
Wrexham	7	46	71	19	14	13	69	65	4	DLWWL
Derby	8	46	69	20	9	17	67	59	8	LWLWL
Norwich	9	46	65	19	8	19	63	56	7	LDWWL
Birmingham	10	46	64	17	13	16	57	56	1	DWWDW
Swansea	11	46	64	18	10	18	57	59	-2	WDWLW
Bristol City	12	46	62	17	11	18	59	59	0	WLDLD
Sheffield Utd	13	46	60	18	6	22	66	66	0	WLLWW
Preston	14	46	60	15	15	16	55	62	-7	LWLLW
QPR	15	46	58	16	10	20	61	73	-12	LLLLD
Watford	16	46	57	14	15	17	53	65	-12	LLLLL
Stoke City	17	46	55	15	10	21	51	56	-5	LLLLD
Portsmouth	18	46	55	14	13	19	49	64	-15	DWLWW
Charlton	19	46	53	13	14	19	44	58	-14	LWLDL
Blackburn	20	46	52	13	13	20	42	56	-14	LWDLD
West Brom	21	46	51	13	14	19	48	58	-10	LDWWD
Oxford United Relegation	22	46	47	11	14	21	45	59	-14	LWLLW
Leicester Relegation	23	46	46	12	16	18	58	68	-10	WDDLL
Sheffield Wednesday Relegation	24	46	0	2	12	32	29	89	-60	WLLDD