Sat, May 9 2026 • 22:00 •
Estadio Alberto J. Armando
Expected Goals
0.60 (league 1.01)
0.42 (league 0.76)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.0% | 45.9% | 21.2% |
best score tips
0 - 0
36.2%
1 - 0
21.6%
0 - 1
15.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Huracan | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Boca Juniors | 0 | 36.3% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Boca Juniors carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 67 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Boca Juniors +37.6, Huracan +12.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Boca Juniors
vs
Huracan
Elo gapBoca Juniors +67
Home / draw / away46% / 22% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3185.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3185.7
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1608.6 | 1577.1 |
| Form Elo | 1622.9 | 1578.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1554.3 | 1549.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1571.1 | 1498.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1654.2 | 1648.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +37.6 | +12.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Boca Juniors last-5 Elo change: +37.6; Huracan last-5 Elo change: +12.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 53% |
| Attack | 90% | 80% |
| Defense | 80% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
48%
FT probability
2.5+
34%
FT probability
3.5+
24%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Wins | 38% | 63% | 50% | 50% | 13% | 31% |
| Draws | 63% | 13% | 38% | 13% | 75% | 44% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 38% | 13% | 25% |
Boca JuniorsWLWLDDDWDDWWDWWW
HuracanDLDWWDLWLDDWWDLD
League goals
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 14 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 3 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Boca Juniors | Huracan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 44% | 69% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 13% | 19% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 0% | 19% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Boca Juniors | Huracan |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 63% | 37% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 61.2% | 38.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.00 @ Betano
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away5.00 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.40 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.53 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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