Rosario Central 3-1 Independiente: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Rosario Central 3-1 Independiente: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Liga Profesional Argentina 🌍 Argentina

Sun, May 10 2026 · 18:00

Rosario Central

3 - 1

Independiente

🏆 Liga Profesional Argentina

🌍 Argentina

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.35

League avg: 1.30

Both

2.35

League avg: 2.80

Away

1.00

League avg: 1.50

1X2 Probability

Home

49%

ELO-based: 45%

Draw

23%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

28%

ELO-based: 31%

Goal Probability

2.5+

49%

3.5+

35%

BTTS

74%

Best Score Tips

1 - 013%

1 - 113%

0 - 010%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Rosario Central vs Independiente

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Rosario Central vs Independiente.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Independiente
		0	1	2	3	4
Rosario Central	0	9.5%	9.5%	4.8%	1.6%	0.4%
	1	12.9%	12.9%	6.4%	2.1%	0.5%
	2	8.7%	8.7%	4.3%	1.4%	0.4%
	3	3.9%	3.9%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
	4	1.3%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1639+6

League

1538±0

Away

1577+6

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Medium confidence, medium upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Rosario Central	1639	1647	1555	1517	1669	+6
Independiente	1577	1578	1501	1566	1605	+6

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Rosario Central	6	16	28	8	4	4	20	16	WLWWD
Independiente	8	16	24	6	6	4	24	20	WDWLW

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Rosario Central	5	67%	62%	46%	1.6	1.4
Independiente	5	67%	54%	62%	1.4	1.0

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Rosario Central	1.3	1.3	1.3	0.9	1.1	1.0
Independiente	1.9	1.1	1.5	1.1	1.4	1.3

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Rosario Central	1.3	1.3	1.0	0.9
Independiente	1.5	1.1	1.3	1.4

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	15.00%	13.04%	6.25%	23.81%
16-30	5.00%	8.70%	12.50%	9.52%
31-45	25.00%	17.39%	31.25%	23.81%
46-60	20.00%	26.09%	6.25%	4.76%
61-75	10.00%	13.04%	6.25%	19.05%
76-90	25.00%	21.74%	37.50%	19.05%

Team Comparison

Form

53%

Attack

47%

42%

Defense

58%

57%

Poisson

43%

29%

H2H

71%

33%

Goals

67%

44%

Total

56%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Rosario Central	2-0	0-2	1-2	3-1	2 / 2	2 / 3
Independiente	3-1	1-2	1-2	2-0	4 / 2	4 / 3

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Rosario Central	4	2	2	4	2	2
Independiente	4	3	1	1	0	1

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Rosario Central	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Independiente	2	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2025-11-16	Independiente	1 - 0 FT	Rosario Central
2025-05-03	Rosario Central	1 - 0 FT	Independiente
2024-08-17	Independiente	1 - 0 FT	Rosario Central
2024-02-14	Independiente	1 - 0 FT	Rosario Central
2023-09-20	Rosario Central	1 - 1 FT	Independiente
2023-04-13	Rosario Central	1 - 0 FT	Independiente

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.20	Homepage market
Draw	3.00	Homepage market
Away win	3.70	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	1.50	Homepage market
BTTS market	2.05	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Stats

Stat	Rosario Central	Independiente
expected_goals	1.79	0.89
Ball Possession	60%	40%
Total Shots	14	6
Shots on Goal	6	4
Shots off Goal	7	2
Blocked Shots	1	0
Shots insidebox	10	4
Shots outsidebox	4	2
Corner Kicks	2	3
Offsides	—	—
Fouls	11	14
Yellow Cards	2	2
Red Cards	—	—
Goalkeeper Saves	3	3
Total passes	442	281
Passes accurate	348	197
Passes %	79%	70%
goals_prevented	-1.45	-1.45

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
90+3'	Rosario Central	E. Veron	Card	Yellow Card
90+2'	Rosario Central	E. Veron	Goal	Assist: G. Cantizano
89'	Independiente	M. Gutierrez	subst	Out: F. Tempone
89'	Independiente	M. Valenzuela	subst	Out: F. Zabala
87'	Rosario Central	A. Di Maria	subst	Out: A. Veliz
87'	Rosario Central	E. Copetti	subst	Out: C. Quintana
84'	Rosario Central	G. Cantizano	Goal	Assist: E. Coronel
82'	Rosario Central	V. Pizarro	subst	Out: E. Veron
82'	Rosario Central	A. Sandez	subst	Out: A. Soto
75'	Independiente	M. Perez Curci	subst	Out: S. Montiel
75'	Independiente	I. Malcorra	subst	Out: L. Millan
65'	Independiente	K. Lomonaco	subst	Out: J. Fedorco
50'	Independiente	I. Malcorra	Card	Yellow Card
46'	Rosario Central	E. Gimenez	subst	Out: G. Cantizano
45+2'	Rosario Central	A. Di Maria	Goal	Assist: F. Ibarra
36'	Independiente	G. Avalos	Goal	Assist: M. Gutierrez
34'	Independiente	M. Perez Curci	Card	Yellow Card
11'	Rosario Central	V. Pizarro	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Estudiantes L.P. Playoffs	1	16	31	9	4	3	19	7	12	LWDWW
Boca Juniors Playoffs	2	16	30	8	6	2	22	9	13	LWWWD
Velez Sarsfield Playoffs	3	16	28	7	7	2	18	12	6	LDDDW
Talleres Cordoba Playoffs	4	16	26	7	5	4	17	13	4	LDDWW
Independiente Playoffs	5	16	24	6	6	4	24	20	4	LWLWD
Lanus Playoffs	6	16	24	6	6	4	18	15	3	LDDLW
San Lorenzo Playoffs	7	16	22	5	7	4	14	14	0	LLWDD
Union Santa Fe Playoffs	8	16	21	5	6	5	24	20	4	LWDDL
Instituto Cordoba	9	16	21	6	3	7	17	17	0	WDLWW
Defensa Y Justicia	10	16	19	4	7	5	18	21	-3	LLLLL
Gimnasia M.	11	16	19	5	4	7	14	22	-8	WLWDW
Platense	12	16	16	3	7	6	10	15	-5	LLLDD
Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	16	16	4	4	8	11	21	-10	LDWLL
Newells Old Boys	14	16	15	3	6	7	15	27	-12	DDWDW
Deportivo Riestra	15	16	11	1	8	7	5	12	-7	DWLLL
Independ. Rivadavia Playoffs	1	16	34	10	4	2	29	15	14	LDWDW
River Plate Playoffs	2	16	29	9	2	5	22	12	10	WWWLW
Argentinos JRS Playoffs	3	16	29	8	5	3	17	13	4	WWLWW
Rosario Central Playoffs	4	16	28	8	4	4	20	16	4	LWWDW
Belgrano Cordoba Playoffs	5	16	26	7	5	4	17	13	4	WWWLD
Gimnasia L.P. Playoffs	6	16	26	8	2	6	19	19	0	LWWWW
Huracan Playoffs	7	16	22	5	7	4	17	13	4	LWDLD
Racing Club Playoffs	8	16	21	5	6	5	17	15	2	LWDDD
Barracas Central	9	16	21	5	6	5	15	15	0	LDDWL
Tigre	10	16	20	4	8	4	18	15	3	DLDDL
Sarmiento Junin	11	16	19	6	1	9	13	20	-7	LWLLW
Banfield	12	16	18	5	3	8	17	19	-2	WDDLL
Atletico Tucuman	13	16	14	3	5	8	15	20	-5	WDLDL
Aldosivi	14	16	8	0	8	8	6	19	-13	DLDLD
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	15	16	5	1	2	13	5	24	-19	LLLLD
Independ. Rivadavia Qualified for Copa Libertadores 2027 and Supercopa Internacional 2026	1	16	34	10	4	2	29	15	14	LDWDW
Estudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores	2	16	31	9	4	3	19	7	12	LWDWW
Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores	3	16	30	8	6	2	22	9	13	LWWWD
River Plate Copa Sudamericana	4	16	29	9	2	5	22	12	10	WWWLW
Argentinos JRS Copa Sudamericana	5	16	29	8	5	3	17	13	4	WWLWW
Velez Sarsfield Copa Sudamericana	6	16	28	7	7	2	18	12	6	LDDDW
Rosario Central Copa Sudamericana	7	16	28	8	4	4	20	16	4	LWWDW
Talleres Cordoba Copa Sudamericana	8	16	26	7	5	4	17	13	4	LDDWW
Belgrano Cordoba Copa Sudamericana	9	16	26	7	5	4	17	13	4	WWWLD
Gimnasia L.P.	10	16	26	8	2	6	19	19	0	LWWWW
Independiente	11	16	24	6	6	4	24	20	4	LWLWD
Lanus	12	16	24	6	6	4	18	15	3	LDDLW
Huracan	13	16	22	5	7	4	17	13	4	LWDLD
San Lorenzo	14	16	22	5	7	4	14	14	0	LLWDD
Union Santa Fe	15	16	21	5	6	5	24	20	4	LWDDL
Racing Club	16	16	21	5	6	5	17	15	2	LWDDD
Instituto Cordoba	17	16	21	6	3	7	17	17	0	WDLWW
Barracas Central	18	16	21	5	6	5	15	15	0	LDDWL
Tigre	19	16	20	4	8	4	18	15	3	DLDDL
Defensa Y Justicia	20	16	19	4	7	5	18	21	-3	LLLLL
Sarmiento Junin	21	16	19	6	1	9	13	20	-7	LWLLW
Gimnasia M.	22	16	19	5	4	7	14	22	-8	WLWDW
Banfield	23	16	18	5	3	8	17	19	-2	WDDLL
Platense	24	16	16	3	7	6	10	15	-5	LLLDD
Central Cordoba de Santiago	25	16	16	4	4	8	11	21	-10	LDWLL
Newells Old Boys	26	16	15	3	6	7	15	27	-12	DDWDW
Atletico Tucuman	27	16	14	3	5	8	15	20	-5	WDLDL
Deportivo Riestra	28	16	11	1	8	7	5	12	-7	DWLLL
Aldosivi	29	16	8	0	8	8	6	19	-13	DLDLD
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Relegation	30	16	5	1	2	13	5	24	-19	LLLLD
Boca Juniors	1	89	159				0	0	0	LWWWD
River Plate	2	89	152				0	0	0	WWWLW
Velez Sarsfield	3	89	144				0	0	0	LDDDW
Racing Club	4	89	144				0	0	0	LWDDD
Argentinos JRS	5	89	142				0	0	0	WWLWW
Rosario Central	6	89	141				0	0	0	LWWDW
Estudiantes L.P.	7	89	136				0	0	0	LWDWW
Independiente	8	89	134				0	0	0	LWLWD
Lanus	9	89	133				0	0	0	LDDLW
Talleres Cordoba	10	89	132				0	0	0	LDDWW
Huracan	11	89	131				0	0	0	LWDLD
Independ. Rivadavia	12	89	123				0	0	0	LDWDW
Union Santa Fe	13	89	120				0	0	0	LWDDL
Barracas Central	14	89	119				0	0	0	LDDWL
San Lorenzo	15	89	118				0	0	0	LLWDD
Defensa Y Justicia	16	89	115				0	0	0	LLLLL
Belgrano Cordoba	17	89	112				0	0	0	WWWLD
Gimnasia L.P.	18	89	112				0	0	0	LWWWW
Deportivo Riestra	19	89	111				0	0	0	DWLLL
Instituto Cordoba	20	89	108				0	0	0	WDLWW
Tigre	21	89	108				0	0	0	DLDDL
Platense	22	89	108				0	0	0	LLLDD
Gimnasia M.	23	16	19				0	0	0	WLWDW
Central Cordoba de Santiago	24	89	100				0	0	0	LDWLL
Atletico Tucuman	25	89	98				0	0	0	WDLDL
Newells Old Boys	26	89	97				0	0	0	DDWDW
Banfield	27	89	94				0	0	0	WDDLL
Sarmiento Junin	28	89	89				0	0	0	LWLLW
Aldosivi	29	48	41				0	0	0	DLDLD
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Relegation	30	16	5				0	0	0	LLLLD