Ancona 1-3 Notaresco: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Ancona 1-3 Notaresco: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Serie D - Girone F 🌍 Italy

Sun, May 10 2026 · 14:00

AET

Ancona

1 - 3

Notaresco

🏆 Serie D - Girone F

🌍 Italy

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.15

League avg: 1.70

Both

2.05

League avg: 3.00

Away

0.90

League avg: 1.30

1X2 Probability

Home

40%

ELO-based: 43%

Draw

37%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

23%

ELO-based: 33%

Goal Probability

2.5+

43%

3.5+

31%

BTTS

59%

Best Score Tips

1 - 015%

1 - 113%

0 - 013%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Ancona vs Notaresco

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Ancona vs Notaresco.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Notaresco
		0	1	2	3	4
Ancona	0	12.9%	11.6%	5.2%	1.6%	0.4%
	1	14.8%	13.3%	6.0%	1.8%	0.4%
	2	8.5%	7.7%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
	3	3.3%	2.9%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
	4	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

ELO Overview

Home

1604-10

League

1506±0

Away

1555+7

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Medium confidence, medium upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Ancona	1604	1599	1519	1556	1610	-10
Notaresco	1555	1570	1561	1520	1605	+7

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Ancona	2	34	76	23	7	4	59	22	LWWDD
Notaresco	5	34	51	13	12	9	43	31	WLWLD

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Ancona	5	53%	75%	50%	1.2	0.8
Notaresco	5	47%	88%	25%	1.4	1.2

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Ancona	1.6	1.8	1.7	0.5	0.8	0.6
Notaresco	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.1	0.7	0.9

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Ancona	1.7	1.6	0.6	0.5
Notaresco	1.3	1.3	0.9	0.7

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	13.79%	4.55%	13.04%	13.33%
16-30	18.97%	13.64%	8.70%	16.67%
31-45	18.97%	31.82%	26.09%	20.00%
46-60	13.79%	15.91%	13.04%	10.00%
61-75	6.90%	15.91%	13.04%	10.00%
76-90	27.59%	18.18%	26.09%	30.00%

Team Comparison

53%

Form

47%

46%

Attack

54%

Defense

58%

Poisson

42%

H2H

67%

Goals

33%

61%

Total

39%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Ancona	4-0	1-5	0-2	3-0	4 / 5	2 / 3
Notaresco	4-0	1-4	1-3	2-0	4 / 4	3 / 2

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Ancona	18	10	8	6	3	3
Notaresco	14	5	9	8	2	6

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Ancona	6	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Notaresco	6	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-05-03	Ancona	1 - 1 FT	Notaresco
2025-12-21	Notaresco	1 - 1 FT	Ancona
2025-04-13	Ancona	3 - 1 FT	Notaresco
2024-12-01	Notaresco	0 - 1 FT	Ancona

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	1.57	Homepage market
Draw	4.10	Homepage market
Away win	4.20	Homepage market
2.5 goals market	2.15	Homepage market

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
119'	Notaresco	A. Arrigoni	Goal	Normal Goal
110'	Notaresco	D. Gaetani	Goal	Normal Goal
70'	Notaresco	S. Infantino	Goal	Penalty
41'	Ancona	D. Kouko	Goal	Penalty

League Standings

Local standings cache · Serie D - Girone F 2025

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Ostia Mare Promotion	1	34	79	24	7	3	65	25	40	LWWWW
Ancona Promotion Playoffs	2	34	76	23	7	4	59	22	37	LDDWW
Teramo Promotion Playoffs	3	34	74	21	11	2	65	29	36	WDDWD
Atletico Ascoli Promotion Playoffs	4	34	55	14	13	7	55	34	21	LDLDD
Notaresco Promotion Playoffs	5	34	51	13	12	9	43	31	12	WDLWL
L'Aquila	6	34	51	14	9	11	53	44	9	DDLDL
Real Giulianova	7	34	49	11	16	7	40	31	9	WDLDD
Vigor Senigallia	8	34	49	12	13	9	45	40	5	DLWDL
Fossombrone	9	34	44	11	11	12	28	34	-6	LWDLL
Unipomezia	10	34	42	10	12	12	43	42	1	DLWDD
Termoli Calcio	11	34	39	8	15	11	27	30	-3	DLLWD
Maceratese	12	34	38	11	5	18	43	49	-6	LDLWD
Sora Relegation Playoffs	13	34	38	9	11	14	40	50	-10	WWLDL
Chieti Relegation Playoffs	14	34	35	8	11	15	31	55	-24	WWWDL
Recanatese Relegation Playoffs	15	34	32	8	8	18	39	57	-18	WDWLW
Victor San Marino Relegation Playoffs	16	34	31	8	7	19	33	61	-28	WWLDW
Castelfidardo Calcio Relegation	17	34	23	6	5	23	30	65	-35	LLLDD
Sammaurese Relegation	18	34	22	5	7	22	29	69	-40	LWLLD