Sun, May 17 2026 • 14:00 •
Stadio Guido Angelini
Expected Goals
1.23 (league 1.31)
0.98 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.9% | 28.8% | 29.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Recanatese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chieti | 0 | 11.0% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.5% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Chieti carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 67 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chieti +45.4, Recanatese +39.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Chieti
vs
Recanatese
Elo gapChieti +67
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo2911.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2911.1
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1471.5 | 1439.6 |
| Form Elo | 1496.6 | 1451.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1508.3 | 1443.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1409.4 | 1464 |
| Defense Elo | 1451.6 | 1416.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +45.4 | +39.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Chieti last-5 Elo change: +45.4; Recanatese last-5 Elo change: +39.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 42% | 75% |
| Defense | 58% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 35% | 12% | 24% | 29% | 18% | 24% |
| Draws | 35% | 29% | 32% | 29% | 18% | 24% |
| Loses | 29% | 59% | 44% | 41% | 65% | 53% |
ChietiDDWDDWDDLLLLLDLLLLWLLDDLWLDLWLDWWW
RecanateseLWDLLLLLLWLWDDWLLLDWLDLLDLLDLWLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 16 | 31 | 22 | 17 | 39 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 19 | 36 | 55 | 27 | 30 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chieti | Recanatese | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 79% | 74% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 47% | 32% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 29% | 6% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 3% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chieti | Recanatese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 53% | 47% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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