Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC

Copa Colombia — Colombia

Mon, May 11 2026 • 20:30 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Not Started

Independiente Medellin

—

Fortaleza FC

Expected Goals

0.05 (league 1.42) 0.05 (league 0.84)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
4.6%	90.7%	4.6%

best score tips

0 - 0

90.5%

0 - 1

4.5%

1 - 0

4.5%

Score & goals probability table

		Fortaleza FC
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Independiente Medellin	0	90.5%	4.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	1	4.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	2	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Independiente Medellin 0.0, Fortaleza FC 0.0.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Independiente Medellin Elo 0 · 0.0

Fortaleza FC Elo 0 · 0.0

Elo gapLevel

Home / draw / away0% / 24% / 76%

Expected home share0%

Combined Elo0

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 0

Elo home share 0%

Match tone Tactical Watch

Metric	Independiente Medellin	Fortaleza FC
Overall Elo	—	—
Form Elo	—	—
Home / Away Elo	—	—
Attack Elo	—	—
Defense Elo	—	—
Last 5 Elo change	0.0	0.0

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Independiente Medellin last-5 Elo change: 0.0; Fortaleza FC last-5 Elo change: 0.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Independiente Medellin	Fortaleza FC
Played	0	1
Form	0%	100%
Attack	0%	24%
Defense	0%	94%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	0 \| 0	4 \| 4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	0 \| 0	1 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

36%

FT probability

2.5+

25%

FT probability

3.5+

18%

FT probability

BTTS

50%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Independiente Medellin			Fortaleza FC
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	0	0	0	1	0	1
Wins	—	—	—	100%	—	100%
Draws	—	—	—	0%	—	0%
Loses	—	—	—	0%	—	0%

Independiente Medellin—

Fortaleza FCW

League goals

Metric	Independiente Medellin			Fortaleza FC
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	0	0	0	4	0	4
GF avg	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	4.0
GA total	0	0	0	1	0	1
GA avg	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Independiente Medellin		Fortaleza FC
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	—	—	100%	100%
1.5	—	—	100%	0%
2.5	—	—	100%	0%
3.5	—	—	100%	0%
4.5	—	—	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Independiente Medellin			Fortaleza FC
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	0	0	0	0	0
Failed to score	0	0	0	0	0	0

Penalties

Metric	Independiente Medellin	Fortaleza FC
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1

Streaks

Metric	Independiente Medellin	Fortaleza FC
Wins	0	1
Draws	0	0
Losses	0	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	—	—	4-1	—
Biggest losses	—	—	—	—
Goals For	0	0	4	0
Goals Against	0	0	1	0

Model comparison

Metric	Independiente Medellin	Fortaleza FC
Form	0%	100%
Att	0%	100%
Def	100%	0%
Poisson Distribution	0%	0%
H2h	85%	15%
Goals	75%	25%
Total	80.0%	20.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC

Metric	Independiente Medellin	Fortaleza FC
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1