Leioa 1-0 Derio: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Leioa 1-0 Derio: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 🌍 Spain

Sat, Jun 6 2026 · 17:00

Leioa

1 - 0

Derio

🏆 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

🌍 Spain

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.67

League avg: 1.50

Both

3.02

League avg: 3.00

Away

1.35

League avg: 1.50

1X2 Probability

Home

37%

ELO-based: 44%

Draw

27%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

36%

ELO-based: 32%

Goal Probability

2.5+

53%

3.5+

32%

BTTS

55%

Best Score Tips

1 - 111%

2 - 19%

1 - 08%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Leioa vs Derio

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Leioa vs Derio.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Derio
		0	1	2	3	4
Leioa	0	4.9%	6.6%	4.5%	2.0%	0.7%
	1	8.2%	11.0%	7.4%	3.3%	1.1%
	2	6.8%	9.2%	6.2%	2.8%	0.9%
	3	3.8%	5.1%	3.4%	1.5%	0.5%
	4	1.6%	2.1%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%

ELO Overview

Home

1592+3

League

1492±0

Away

1536-13

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Medium confidence, medium upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Leioa	1592	1598	1530	1570	1564	+3
Derio	1536	1536	1514	1537	1549	-13

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Leioa	2	37	67	20	7	10	54	37	WLWLW
Derio	3	37	61	18	7	12	56	43	WWLWL

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Leioa	5	60%	82%	36%	1.8	1.4
Derio	5	60%	45%	64%	1.0	0.8

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Leioa	1.8	1.2	1.5	1.3	0.7	1.0
Derio	1.6	1.4	1.5	0.8	1.5	1.2

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Leioa	1.5	1.8	1.0	1.3
Derio	1.5	1.4	1.2	1.5

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	13.46%	8.93%	7.69%	13.95%
16-30	13.46%	7.14%	10.26%	16.28%
31-45	21.15%	17.86%	17.95%	23.26%
46-60	9.62%	12.50%	15.38%	11.63%
61-75	21.15%	23.21%	7.69%	13.95%
76-90	19.23%	30.36%	35.90%	20.93%

Team Comparison

Form

64%

Attack

36%

Defense

64%

49%

Poisson

51%

71%

H2H

29%

67%

Goals

33%

56%

Total

44%

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Leioa	7-1	1-3	0-3	3-2	7 / 3	4 / 3
Derio	4-0	0-4	2-3	5-2	4 / 4	3 / 5

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Leioa	13	4	9	8	4	4
Derio	11	7	4	9	4	5

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Leioa	2	100.00%	0	0%	—	—
Derio	6	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2026-05-31	Derio	0 - 1 FT	Leioa
2026-04-12	Leioa	0 - 0 FT	Derio
2025-12-07	Derio	1 - 0 FT	Leioa
2025-03-22	Leioa	2 - 1 FT	Derio
2024-11-09	Derio	0 - 1 FT	Leioa
2024-04-26	Derio	3 - 1 FT	Leioa

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.10	Bet365
Draw	3.30	Betano
Away win	4.00	Unibet
Over 2.5	2.15	Bet365
Under 2.5	1.76	Unibet
BTTS Yes	1.80	Marathonbet
BTTS No	1.89	1xBet

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
85'	Leioa	J. Juste	Goal	Normal Goal

League Standings

Local standings cache · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2025

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Portugalete Promotion	1	34	78	24	6	4	70	29	41	WLDWL
Leioa Promotion Playoffs	2	34	61	18	7	9	50	34	16	WWLWL
Derio Promotion Playoffs	3	34	58	17	7	10	54	40	14	LLWLW
Lagun Onak Promotion Playoffs	4	34	57	17	6	11	53	34	19	LWWDD
Touring Promotion Playoffs	5	34	57	16	9	9	47	35	12	WLLLD
Real Sociedad III	6	34	55	17	4	13	48	39	9	WWWWW
San Ignacio	7	34	55	16	7	11	37	27	10	WLWLD
Aurrerá Vitoria	8	34	54	16	7	12	42	40	2	WWLDL
Deportivo Alavés III	9	34	53	15	8	11	57	40	17	LWLWW
Aretxabaleta	10	34	45	13	6	15	56	61	-5	WLLLW
Durango	11	34	44	11	11	12	35	36	-1	WLDWD
Santurtzi	12	34	39	9	12	13	32	45	-13	LWDWL
Eibar III	13	34	36	9	9	16	44	53	-9	WDWLD
Pasaia KE	14	34	36	9	9	16	26	46	-20	LLDWL
Añorga	15	34	34	11	4	19	37	59	-22	LWDWL
Zamudio Relegation	16	34	33	9	6	19	42	59	-17	LLDLW
Zarautz Relegation	17	34	30	8	6	20	30	60	-30	LWDLL
Deusto Relegation	18	34	26	6	8	21	26	49	-23	LLLDW