Tochigi SC 2-1 Kitakyushu: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Tochigi SC 2-1 Kitakyushu: Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review | footywow

🏆 J2/J3 League 🌍 Japan

Sun, Jun 7 2026 · 05:00

AET

Tochigi SC

2 - 1

Kitakyushu

🏆 J2/J3 League

🌍 Japan

🏟️ TBA

Pre-Match Predictions

Expected Goals

Home

1.68

League avg: 1.30

Both

2.77

League avg: 2.20

Away

1.10

League avg: 0.90

1X2 Probability

Home

52%

ELO-based: 44%

Draw

26%

ELO-based: 24%

Away

22%

ELO-based: 32%

Goal Probability

2.5+

52%

3.5+

31%

BTTS

53%

Best Score Tips

1 - 112%

1 - 011%

2 - 110%

Post-Match Analysis & Prediction Review

Post-match analysis: Tochigi SC vs Kitakyushu

This full-time post-match analysis compares the pre-match prediction signals, 1X2 probabilities, expected goals, goal markets, BTTS angle, score tips, final score and available full-time match stats for Tochigi SC vs Kitakyushu.

Prediction review loading: the final-score comparison and full-time stats assessment are prepared from the fixture data on this page.

FT Score Probability Grid

		Kitakyushu
		0	1	2	3	4
Tochigi SC	0	6.2%	6.8%	3.7%	1.4%	0.4%
	1	10.5%	11.5%	6.3%	2.3%	0.6%
	2	8.8%	9.6%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
	3	4.9%	5.4%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%
	4	2.1%	2.3%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%

ELO Overview

Home

1477-3

League

1486±0

Away

1421-42

ELO Verdict

Home edge, Medium confidence, medium upset risk

ELO	Overall	Form	H/A	Attack	Defense	Last 5 +-
Tochigi SC	1477	1466	1505	1486	1522	-3
Kitakyushu	1421	1396	1497	1446	1441	-42

League Snapshot

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	Form
Tochigi SC	10	19	16	5	1	13	24	32	LWLDL
Kitakyushu	10	19	12	4	0	15	18	38	LLLLL

Recent Team Form

Team	Played	Form	Attack	Defense	GF avg	GA avg
Tochigi SC	5	27%	18%	64%	0.4	0.8
Kitakyushu	5	0%	36%	0%	0.8	2.6

Goal Trends

Team	GF H	GF A	GF Tot	GA H	GA A	GA Tot
Tochigi SC	1.6	0.9	1.3	1.5	1.9	1.7
Kitakyushu	1.2	0.7	0.9	2.2	1.8	2.0

Goals Trends, home + away avg.

Teams	GF	GF H/A	GA	GA H/A
Tochigi SC	1.3	1.6	1.7	1.5
Kitakyushu	0.9	0.7	2.0	1.8

Goal Minutes

Min	Home For	Away For	Home Against	Away Against
0-15	17.39%	25.00%	7.14%	9.09%
16-30	17.39%	5.00%	3.57%	18.18%
31-45	30.43%	10.00%	25.00%	30.30%
46-60	30.43%	25.00%	28.57%	9.09%
61-75		30.00%	17.86%	18.18%
76-90	4.35%	5.00%	17.86%	15.15%

Team Comparison

Form

33%

Attack

67%

76%

Defense

24%

73%

Poisson

27%

29%

H2H

71%

38%

Goals

63%

Total

Biggest Results

Team	Win H	Win A	Loss H	Loss A	GF H/A	GA H/A
Tochigi SC	5-1	1-3	0-3	4-0	5 / 3	3 / 4
Kitakyushu	2-1	0-2	1-5	4-1	2 / 2	5 / 4

Clean sheets & failed to score

Team	CS	CS H	CS A	FTS	FTS H	FTS A
Tochigi SC	3	2	1	7	3	4
Kitakyushu	3	1	2	5	1	4

Penalties

Team	Scored	Scored %	Missed	Missed %	Won	Committed
Tochigi SC	0	0%	0	0%	—	—
Kitakyushu	1	100.00%	0	0%	—	—

Recent H2H

Date	Home	Score	Away
2025-10-05	Tochigi SC	0 - 1 FT	Kitakyushu
2025-05-03	Kitakyushu	0 - 0 FT	Tochigi SC
2021-11-28	Kitakyushu	1 - 2 FT	Tochigi SC
2021-05-05	Tochigi SC	1 - 2 FT	Kitakyushu
2020-11-15	Kitakyushu	1 - 0 FT	Tochigi SC
2020-09-02	Tochigi SC	2 - 2 FT	Kitakyushu

Best Odds Snapshot

Market	Best odd	Bookmaker
Home win	2.17	Superbet
Draw	3.45	Betano
Away win	4.10	10Bet
Over 2.5	2.10	Bet365
Under 2.5	1.82	Unibet
BTTS Yes	1.95	William Hill
BTTS No	1.96	Unibet

Best available odds from cached bookmaker data. No live bookmaker calls are made on this page.

Match Events

Min	Team	Player	Type	Detail
112'	Tochigi SC	T. Tabata	subst	Out: H. Yoshino
103'	Kitakyushu	M. Yoshinaga	subst	Out: D. Takahashi
101'	Tochigi SC	Y. Yanagi	subst	Out: Y. Kimura
97'	Tochigi SC	T. Nagai	Goal	Assist: K. Yagi
91'	Tochigi SC	R. Kawana	subst	Out: S. Suzuki
90'	Kitakyushu	H. Izawa	subst	Out: K. Kumasawa
89'	Kitakyushu	K. Hasegawa	subst	Out: R. Maeda
88'	Tochigi SC	K. Sugimori	subst	Out: S. Meshino
88'	Tochigi SC	K. Abe	subst	Out: K. Osone
83'	Kitakyushu	R. Okano	subst	Out: S. Kawabe
78'	Tochigi SC	K. Nakano	subst	Out: K. Yagi
77'	Kitakyushu	K. Fukumori	Card	Yellow Card
74'	Kitakyushu	S. Watanabe	subst	Out: K. Yoshida
73'	Kitakyushu	R. Kanzawa	subst	Out: K. Fukumori
60'	Tochigi SC	Y. Kondo	Goal	Assist: R. Kawana
39'	Kitakyushu	S. Watanabe	Goal	Assist: M. Yoshinaga
36'	Kitakyushu	S. Watanabe	Card	Yellow Card
27'	Tochigi SC	Y. Yanagi	Card	Yellow Card
16'	Kitakyushu	R. Okano	Card	Yellow Card

League Standings

Local standings cache · J2/J3 League 2026

Team	Pos	MP	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Form
Vegalta Sendai Playoffs	1	18	43	11	5	2	32	15	17	WWLWW
Blaublitz Akita Placement matches	2	18	35	11	2	5	23	14	9	LWWWL
Shonan Bellmare Placement matches	3	18	31	8	4	6	25	19	6	LLLLL
Yokohama FC Placement matches	4	18	29	8	3	7	34	27	7	WWWWW
Sagamihara Placement matches	5	18	28	7	5	6	31	33	-2	WWLLW
Thespakusatsu Gunma Placement matches	6	18	23	6	4	8	26	36	-10	LLWLL
Montedio Yamagata Placement matches	7	18	22	6	2	10	20	25	-5	LLWLL
Tochigi City Placement matches	8	18	21	5	4	9	20	33	-13	WWLWW
Vanraure Hachinohe Placement matches	9	18	20	4	6	8	15	19	-4	DLDWL
Tochigi SC Placement matches	10	18	18	4	5	9	23	28	-5	WLDLW
Ventforet Kofu Playoffs	1	18	35	10	3	5	21	13	8	LLLDW
Consadole Sapporo Placement matches	2	18	31	9	2	7	26	22	4	LLLWW
Iwaki Placement matches	3	18	31	7	6	5	22	18	4	LWWLL
Omiya Ardija Placement matches	4	18	30	9	2	7	38	28	10	WLWLL
Fujieda MYFC Placement matches	5	18	30	6	9	3	21	17	4	WLLWW
FC Gifu Placement matches	6	18	28	8	3	7	24	26	-2	LWLDW
Matsumoto Yamaga Placement matches	7	18	26	6	6	6	31	21	10	LWLWL
Jubilo Iwata Placement matches	8	18	25	5	6	7	16	23	-7	LLWLL
Fukushima United Placement matches	9	18	18	4	4	10	28	41	-13	DWWLW
Parceiro Nagano Placement matches	10	18	16	3	5	10	15	33	-18	WWWWL
Kataller Toyama Playoffs	1	18	38	10	5	3	37	24	13	LWLLW
Albirex Niigata Placement matches	2	18	35	9	5	4	21	17	4	WLWWL
Tokushima Vortis Placement matches	3	18	32	9	3	6	36	22	14	WWWWL
Kochi United Placement matches	4	18	30	8	4	6	23	21	2	LLLLW
Ehime FC Placement matches	5	18	28	8	3	7	25	18	7	LLLWL
Kanazawa Placement matches	6	18	27	5	7	6	15	21	-6	WLWWW
Nara Club Placement matches	7	18	21	5	4	9	25	34	-9	WWWLW
Osaka Placement matches	8	18	20	3	8	7	15	18	-3	WLWLL
Imabari Placement matches	9	18	20	5	4	9	14	18	-4	DLLLW
Kamatamare Sanuki Placement matches	10	18	19	5	3	10	14	32	-18	LWLWL
Tegevajaro Miyazaki Playoffs	1	18	47	15	2	1	35	11	24	WLLWW
Kagoshima United Placement matches	2	18	33	8	5	5	23	15	8	WWWWL
Sagan Tosu Placement matches	3	18	32	8	6	4	24	14	10	WLLLW
Renofa Yamaguchi Placement matches	4	18	29	7	5	6	24	22	2	LWLWL
Roasso Kumamoto Placement matches	5	18	27	8	2	8	20	20	0	LWWLL
Gainare Tottori Placement matches	6	18	27	6	5	7	20	24	-4	WWWWW
Oita Trinita Placement matches	7	18	22	6	3	9	18	18	0	WLLLL
Biwako Shiga Placement matches	8	18	21	6	2	10	15	28	-13	LWWWL
FC Ryukyu Placement matches	9	18	17	2	7	9	13	25	-12	DWWLW
Kitakyushu Placement matches	10	18	15	4	3	11	17	32	-15	LLLLL