Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 17:00 •
Estádio José Gomes
Expected Goals
0.45 (league 1.45)
2.52 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | 12.8% | 78.1% |
best score tips
0 - 2
16.3%
0 - 3
13.7%
0 - 1
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
| FC Porto | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Estrela | 0 | 5.2% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 4.3% |
| 1 | 2.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
FC Porto carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 286 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Estrela -17.4, FC Porto +17.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Estrela
vs
FC Porto
Elo gapFC Porto +286
Home / draw / away13% / 18% / 69%
Expected home share16%
Combined Elo3162.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3162.7
Elo home share
16%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1420.8 | 1741.9 |
| Form Elo | 1407.5 | 1755 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1463.6 | 1607.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1412.9 | 1682.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1442.3 | 1765.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.4 | +17.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Estrela last-5 Elo change: -17.4; FC Porto last-5 Elo change: +17.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 87% |
| Attack | 45% | 100% |
| Defense | 45% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 27% | 13% | 20% | 80% | 87% | 83% |
| Draws | 33% | 33% | 33% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Loses | 40% | 53% | 47% | 0% | 7% | 3% |
EstrelaDLDDLDWLLWDLWLDWDLLDWLLDDLWLLL
FC PortoWWWWWWWDWWWWWWWWWWWLDWWWDWWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 13 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 61 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 22 | 27 | 49 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Estrela | FC Porto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 77% | 97% | 37% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 53% | 67% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 10% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 11 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 3-5 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 4-0 | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Estrela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 19% | 81% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 16% | 84% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 25.2% | 74.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home10.50 @ Unibet
Draw5.41 @ 1xBet
Away1.37 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.86 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.03 @ SBO
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.30 @ Betfair
No1.65 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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