Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Bezirkssportanlage Haunstetten
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.71)
2.27 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | 18.6% | 63.9% |
best score tips
0 - 2
10.1%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 1
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Sportfreunde Schwaig | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Türkspor Augsburg | 0 | 3.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 1.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Sportfreunde Schwaig carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 130 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Türkspor Augsburg -0.8, Sportfreunde Schwaig +16.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Türkspor Augsburg
vs
Sportfreunde Schwaig
Elo gapSportfreunde Schwaig +130
Home / draw / away26% / 18% / 56%
Expected home share32%
Combined Elo2833.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2833.1
Elo home share
32%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1333.9 | 1499.2 |
| Form Elo | 1324.3 | 1498.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1441.7 | 1503.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1321.3 | 1468.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1250.9 | 1521.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.8 | +16.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Türkspor Augsburg last-5 Elo change: -0.8; Sportfreunde Schwaig last-5 Elo change: +16.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 60% |
| Attack | 21% | 50% |
| Defense | 0% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 21% | 0% | 11% | 43% | 27% | 34% |
| Draws | 21% | 14% | 18% | 29% | 33% | 31% |
| Loses | 57% | 86% | 71% | 29% | 40% | 34% |
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Sportfreunde SchwaigLWWWLDDLWWLDLWLLDWDLWLDLDDWWD
League goals
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 31 | 38 | 69 | 18 | 23 | 41 |
| GA avg | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 54% | 100% | 72% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 79% | 31% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 43% | 21% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 14% | 14% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | — | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-6 | 5-0 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Türkspor Augsburg | Sportfreunde Schwaig |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 10% | 90% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 9% | 91% |
| Poisson Distribution | 32% | 68% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 20.3% | 79.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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