Serie D - Girone H — Italy
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 • Stadio Gian Domenico Tursi
Not Started

Martina Franca

—

Heraclea

Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.35) 0.74 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.9% 31.1% 23.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.4%
0 - 0
15.3%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
Heraclea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Martina Franca 0 15.3% 11.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.4% 12.9% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.9% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Martina Franca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 182 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Martina Franca -4.2, Heraclea -17.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Martina Franca Elo 1583.3 · -4.2
vs
Heraclea Elo 1435.9 · -17.5
Elo gapMartina Franca +182
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo3019.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3019.2
Elo home share 74%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Martina Franca Heraclea
Overall Elo1583.31435.9
Form Elo15931420.1
Home / Away Elo1566.11499.9
Attack Elo15201418.4
Defense Elo1589.31515.5
Last 5 Elo change-4.2-17.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Martina Franca last-5 Elo change: -4.2; Heraclea last-5 Elo change: -17.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMartina FrancaHeraclea
Played55
Form47%20%
Attack75%75%
Defense50%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.89 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Martina Franca Heraclea
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins69%38%53%19%38%28%
Draws19%31%25%31%19%25%
Loses13%31%22%50%44%47%
Martina FrancaWWDDWWLWLDLLWDWWWDDLWWWWWWDLWDWL
HeracleaWWLDLWWWWDWLLLLLLWLLDLDWDLLDDDLL

League goals

Metric Martina Franca Heraclea
HATHAT
GF total271744141428
GF avg1.71.11.40.90.90.9
GA total121527221436
GA avg0.80.90.81.40.91.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMartina FrancaHeraclea
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%53%69%72%
1.544%16%16%31%
2.519%13%3%9%
3.53%3%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMartina FrancaHeraclea
HATHAT
Clean sheets10515369
Failed to score3694610

Penalties

MetricMartina FrancaHeraclea
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total45

Streaks

MetricMartina FrancaHeraclea
Wins64
Draws23
Losses26

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-22-01-3
Biggest losses0-43-21-32-0
Goals For4323
Goals Against4332

Model comparison

MetricMartina FrancaHeraclea
Form70%30%
Att50%50%
Def69%31%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total63.3%36.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Venue page • Martina Franca vs Heraclea

Expected goals (λ): Martina Franca = 1.14 (league 1.35), Heraclea = 0.74 (league 0.97)

Heraclea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Martina Franca 0 15.3% 11.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.4% 12.9% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.9% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.9% · Draw 31.1% · Away win 23.9%