Sun, Apr 19 2026 • 16:00 •
De Kuip
Expected Goals
2.18 (league 1.96)
0.97 (league 1.94)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.5% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| NEC Nijmegen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.1% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 100% |
| Attack | 76% | 71% |
| Defense | 82% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 3.3 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
79%
FT probability
3.5+
56%
FT probability
BTTS
88%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Wins | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
AZ AlkmaarWWWW
NEC NijmegenWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| GF avg | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 100% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 0% | 80% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 60% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 1-3 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 52% | 48% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 53% | 47% |
| Total | 56.2% | 43.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.55 @ Unibet
Draw3.82 @ 1xBet
Away3.08 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.69 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.31 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.56 @ 1xBet
No2.50 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 2.18 (league 1.96), NEC Nijmegen = 0.97 (league 1.94)
| NEC Nijmegen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.1% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.5% · Draw 19.4% · Away win 15.6%